AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen — Eredivisie: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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AZ AlkmaarGroningenAZ AlkmaarGroningenMatch preview
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen in Eredivisie matchday 12 as home side seek to end skid
AZ Alkmaar welcome Groningen to the AFAS Stadion on matchday 12 of the Eredivisie, with the hosts having lost their last three games. Leeroy Echteld's side sit fifth on 20 points from 11 matches, five clear of their visitors, and most recently went down 2-1 at home to Juventus.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Groningen, managed by Dick Lukkien, are eighth on 15 points after the same number of games. Their league form has been uneven: a 5-1 win at Excelsior on 11 October was followed by a 5-2 home defeat by Ajax, a 2-2 draw at NEC Nijmegen, and then home losses to Emmen and Sparta Rotterdam, the latter 3-2 on 1 November.
Away from home, Groningen have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, scoring 13 goals and conceding 10. AZ's last five at home have brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with five goals scored and six conceded.
Across their last 5 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 3, Groningen won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar on 22 March 2026. AZ Alkmaar's latest win in this sample was AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Groningen on 10 August 2025.
AZ have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five games, while Groningen's record over the same span is one win, one draw and three defeats.
Both sides have faced Ajax recently, with AZ losing 1-0 away on 31 October and Groningen beaten 5-2 at home on 18 October.
AZ Alkmaar meet Groningen in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 15:45 UTC at AFAS Stadion.
Team pages: AZ Alkmaar · Groningen · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
AZ Alkmaar 61% · Draw 22% · Groningen 17%
AZ Alkmaar's stronger rating drives a clear lead — We give AZ Alkmaar 61% mainly because they sit 152 points higher on our strength rating, 1659 to 1507, and their recent finishing has fallen short of their chances, a cold streak that usually bounces back. The draw sits at 22%, down from a usual 25% because both sides' own recent games average 3.4 goals and that finishing streak trims it further.
Why AZ Alkmaar at 61%?
AZ Alkmaar sit 152 points higher on our strength rating — 1659 to 1507. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. AZ Alkmaar sit -0.84 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 67–19–14.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 22% and Groningen at 17%.
Why is the draw only 22%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
AZ Alkmaar have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Groningen in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Groningen scored +0.59 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the AZ Alkmaar and Groningen team pages or the Eredivisie page.