Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar — Eredivisie: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Fortuna SittardTelstarFortuna SittardTelstarMatch preview
Fortuna Sittard host Telstar on Eredivisie Matchday 12
Fortuna Sittard welcome Telstar to the Fortuna Sittard Stadion in the Eredivisie, with Danny Buijs's side sixth in the table on 19 points from 11 games. Telstar, managed by Henk Brugge, sit 16th on nine points, ten places and ten points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Fortuna arrive unbeaten in six games. In their last five they have drawn four and won one, scoring seven and conceding six, and they have not failed to score in any of them. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw away to Feyenoord on 31 October.
Telstar's last five brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with 11 goals scored and 13 conceded. They ended a run of three straight losses by beating Utrecht 4-2 at home on 1 November, having lost 4-3 at home to Feyenoord on 17 October. Away from home, they have won one of their last five games.
Across their last 2 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 1, Telstar won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Fortuna Sittard 1–4 Telstar on 8 March 2026. Fortuna Sittard's latest win in this sample was Telstar 1–3 Fortuna Sittard on 14 September 2025.
Fortuna Sittard have drawn four of their last five without losing, while Telstar have lost three of theirs and conceded 13 goals.
Both sides have faced Feyenoord recently: Fortuna drew 1-1 away on 31 October, while Telstar lost 4-3 at home on 17 October.
Fortuna Sittard meet Telstar in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:30 UTC at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Telstar · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
Fortuna Sittard 43% · Draw 26% · Telstar 31%
Home advantage edges it, Telstar's control pulls back — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Fortuna Sittard's usual home advantage puts them in front at 43%, though Telstar's habit of controlling the ball pulls some of that back. The draw sits at 26%, just under the usual 27.5% for sides this level, mainly because both teams' recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Fortuna Sittard in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1501 to 1466. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 43%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Telstar hold 10 more possession points (47 to 37 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Fortuna Sittard scored +0.68 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Telstar have shed 61 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Fortuna Sittard and Telstar team pages or the Eredivisie page.