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Twente
AjaxTwenteAjaxMatch preview
Twente host Ajax with second and fourth separated by a single point
Matchday 12 of the Eredivisie brings Ajax to De Grolsch Veste to face Twente, in a fixture between the second- and fourth-placed sides. Ajax, managed by Míchel, sit on 24 points from 11 games, while John van den Brom's Twente have 23 from the same number, so just a point and two places divide them.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Ajax arrive having won their last five games, scoring 16 goals and conceding four across that run, with a 6-1 win away to FC Midtjylland on 5 November the latest. Twente have won their last four, a sequence that took in a 9-0 victory away to Excelsior on 1 November and a 3-1 home win over Pafos in their most recent outing.
Both sides have also faced AZ Alkmaar lately: Twente won 2-0 away on 25 October, and Ajax beat them 1-0 at home on 31 October. At home, Twente have won four of their last five games, keeping two clean sheets, while Ajax have won four of their last five away from home.
Across their last 5 meetings, Twente won 1, Ajax won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Ajax 1–2 Twente on 4 April 2026. Ajax's latest win in this sample was Twente 2–3 Ajax on 26 October 2025.
Ajax have won all five of their last five games, while Twente have won four of five, their only defeat a 2-1 home loss to Utrecht on 18 October.
Both sides have beaten AZ Alkmaar in the last fortnight without conceding, Twente winning 2-0 away and Ajax 1-0 at home.
Twente meet Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 13:30 UTC at De Grolsch Veste.
Team pages: Twente · Ajax · Eredivisie
Sirius · Why these numbers
Twente 46% · Draw 23% · Ajax 31%
Home advantage gives Twente a slight edge over Ajax — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1711 to 1749, Twente's home advantage puts them in front, helped by Ajax scoring beyond their chances lately, a hot streak of the kind that tends to cool. The draw drops from a usual 27% to 23%, as both teams' recent games average 3.8 goals and that finishing streak lowers it too.
Why Twente in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1711 to 1749. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Ajax scored +0.62 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.7% of 1,684 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 23% and Ajax at 31%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Twente sit -0.33 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Twente have gained 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Twente vs Ajax, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eredivisie fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Twente and Ajax team pages or the Eredivisie page.