St. Truiden vs Lommel United — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 21′Lommel United, VAR review:Penalty confirmed
- 24′Lommel United, penalty goal:0–1Penalty
- 36′St. Truiden, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- Half-time0 – 1
- 49′Lommel United, substitution:off
- 56′Lommel United, substitution:off
- 64′St. Truiden, goal:1–1assist
- 68′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 73′Lommel United, substitution:off
- 73′Lommel United, substitution:L. Beirinckxoff
- 75′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 76′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 89′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 90′St. Truiden, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assist
Player Ratings
St. Truiden
Lommel United
Match report
St. Truiden held to opening-day draw by Lommel despite dominating possession
St. Truiden and Lommel United shared the points in a 1-1 draw as the Jupiler Pro League season got under way at Daio Wasabi Stayen. Ralf Seuntjens opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 24th minute to give the visitors a half-time lead, before Ilias Sebaoui restored parity for the hosts in the 64th minute, converting a chance created by Nelson Ishiwatari.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
St. Truiden dominated territory and chances throughout, finishing with 66 percent of possession and 30 shots to Lommel's nine, yet could not find a second goal to turn control into victory. Lommel's clinical edge from the penalty award proved enough to secure a share of the spoils on the road.
The result leaves St. Truiden fifth and Lommel United sixth in the early table, both sides on a single point from their opening fixture. Anthony Letellier took charge of a contest that produced just one yellow card, shown to a St. Truiden player, amid 13 fouls from the hosts against seven from the visitors.
Loïc Mbe Soh was rated the outstanding performer of the match with an 8.0 rating, leading a St. Truiden defence that faced little threat despite conceding from the penalty spot.
St. Truiden's 30 shots to Lommel's nine underlined how one-sided the balance of attacking play was, even though the scoreline finished level.
St. Truiden and Lommel United drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
St. Truiden met Lommel United in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Daio Wasabi Stayen. Referee: Anthony Letellier.
Team pages: St. Truiden · Lommel United · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 24' Goal (penalty): Ralf Seuntjens — 0–1
- 64' Goal: Ilias Sebaoui (assist: Nelson Ishiwatari) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
St. Truiden (4-2-3-1)
Lommel United (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave St. Truiden 50%, the draw 29%, Lommel United 21%. It finished St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel United.
St. Truiden's rating edge, but the draw is in play — St. Truiden are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives St. Truiden the lean. The draw at 29% is lifted by the early-season fade in home wins.
Why St. Truiden at 50%?
St. Truiden sit 99 points higher on our strength rating — 1686 to 1586. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.6% of 10,332 such games. St. Truiden hold 5 more possession points (55 to 50 in recent games) across a 99-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,562 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why only 50%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims St. Truiden's column. Across 10,505 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Lommel United win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,733. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Lommel United's last five: W-W-W-W-D — clearly the hotter side on recent results, and unbeaten in their last 6. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.8% of 2179 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 3986 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the St. Truiden vs Lommel United final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the St. Truiden and Lommel United team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.