Antwerp vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 2′Antwerp, yellow card:Foul
- 9′St. Truiden, goal:0–1
- 28′St. Truiden, yellow card:Argument
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Antwerp, substitution:off
- 46′Antwerp, substitution:off
- 58′Antwerp, goal:1–1
- 61′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 66′Antwerp, substitution:off
- 73′St. Truiden, goal:1–2assist
- 74′St. Truiden, VAR review:Goal confirmed
- 75′Antwerp, substitution:off
- 75′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 75′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 76′St. Truiden, goal:1–3assist
- 78′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 79′St. Truiden, yellow card:Argument
- 81′Antwerp, substitution:off
- 90′St. Truiden, goal:1–4assist
- 90+3′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 4
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Match report
St. Truiden thrash Antwerp with late four-goal burst
Antwerp were beaten 4-1 by St. Truiden in a Jupiler Pro League clash at Bosuilstadion, a result that leaves Marvin Compper's side with plenty to ponder despite sitting eighth in the table. St. Truiden, managed by Wouter Vrancken, took control early and never let it slip.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Ryotaro Araki put the visitors ahead after just nine minutes, and that slender lead held through the interval. Snayder Porozo levelled for Antwerp in the 58th minute, briefly threatening a home revival, but St. Truiden responded emphatically. Samed Baždar restored the visitors' advantage in the 73rd minute, assisted by Ryan Merlen, before Kaito Matsuzawa added a third just three minutes later, also teed up by Merlen.
Baždar completed his brace deep into stoppage time, latching onto a pass from Ilias Sebaoui to make it 4-1 in the 90th minute and put a emphatic gloss on the scoreline. Despite Antwerp enjoying 58 percent possession and matching their opponents for shots, St. Truiden were far more clinical, their 2.6 expected goals figure dwarfing Antwerp's 0.61 across the match.
Araki scored the opener and was rated the outstanding performer on the pitch with an 8.2 mark, setting the tone for St. Truiden's rout from inside the opening ten minutes.
St. Truiden's 2.6 expected goals figure against Antwerp's 0.61 underlined how much more incisive the visitors were in the final third.
St. Truiden won 4–1 away against Antwerp (half-time 0–1).
Antwerp met St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 30 August 2026, 14:00 UTC at Bosuilstadion. Referee: Bram Van Driessche.
Team pages: Antwerp · St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 9' Goal: Ryotaro Araki — 0–1
- 58' Goal: Snayder Porozo — 1–1
- 73' Goal: Samed Baždar (assist: Ryan Merlen) — 1–2
- 76' Goal: Kaito Matsuzawa (assist: Ryan Merlen) — 1–3
- 90' Goal: Samed Baždar (assist: Ilias Sebaoui) — 1–4
Starting line-ups
Antwerp (4-4-2)
St. Truiden (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Antwerp 38%, the draw 28%, St. Truiden 34%. It finished Antwerp 1–4 St. Truiden.
Home ground outweighs St. Truiden's rating edge — St. Truiden are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground gives Antwerp the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Antwerp at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. St. Truiden sit 83 points higher on our strength rating — 1607 to 1691. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,561 such games.
Why only 38%?
Because St. Truiden are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Antwerp's column. Across 10,823 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,046. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Antwerp have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). St. Truiden are winless in their last 8 visits to Antwerp. "Cursed ground" stories don't survive the receipts: winless visitors won 20.4% of 5,648 return visits vs 21.4% class-expected — the rating's own read already covers it. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Antwerp vs St. Truiden final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Antwerp and St. Truiden team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.