KVC Westerlo vs Zulte Waregem — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 8′KVC Westerlo, goal:1–0
- 25′Zulte Waregem, goal:1–1assist
- Half-time1 – 1
- 48′KVC Westerlo, penalty goal:2–1Penalty
- 63′Zulte Waregem, goal:2–2assist
- 66′Zulte Waregem, substitution:off
- 73′KVC Westerlo, substitution:off
- 77′KVC Westerlo, substitution:off
- 79′Zulte Waregem, substitution:off
- 82′KVC Westerlo, yellow card:Foul
- 83′Zulte Waregem, substitution:off
- 87′KVC Westerlo, substitution:D. Jochemoff
- 87′KVC Westerlo, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
KVC Westerlo
Zulte Waregem
Match report
Westerlo let two-goal cushion slip as Hedl double earns Zulte Waregem draw
KVC Westerlo and Zulte Waregem shared the points in a 2-2 draw at Het Kuipje in Jupiler Pro League Regular Season - 4, a result that did little to ease the hosts' struggles near the bottom of the table. Twice Westerlo led, and twice they were pegged back by a visiting side that arrived in far better form.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Shunsuke Saito put Westerlo ahead after just eight minutes, but Zulte Waregem responded quickly through Tobias Hedl, who converted an Anosike Ementa assist in the 25th minute to level matters before half-time, with the sides going in level at 1-1.
Norman Bassette restored Westerlo's advantage from the penalty spot three minutes into the second half, giving the hosts renewed hope, only for Hedl to strike again in the 63rd minute, once more teed up by Ementa, to complete his double and secure a 2-2 finish.
Westerlo had the better of the possession and territory, dominating the ball at 54 percent and outshooting their opponents 15 to 13, yet their profligacy in defence and discipline told, as they committed 18 fouls to Zulte Waregem's 12 and picked up the match's lone yellow card.
Hedl scored twice for Zulte Waregem, cancelling out both of Westerlo's goals to finish as the top-rated performer on the pitch with an 8.9 rating.
Westerlo generated the higher expected goals tally of the two sides at 2.13 to 1.39, reflecting their territorial dominance despite failing to hold onto their lead.
KVC Westerlo and Zulte Waregem drew 2–2 (half-time 1–1).
KVC Westerlo met Zulte Waregem in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 30 August 2026, 17:15 UTC at Het Kuipje. Referee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui.
Team pages: KVC Westerlo · Zulte Waregem · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 8' Goal: Shunsuke Saito — 1–0
- 25' Goal: Tobias Hedl (assist: Anosike Ementa) — 1–1
- 48' Goal (penalty): Norman Bassette — 2–1
- 63' Goal: Tobias Hedl (assist: Anosike Ementa) — 2–2
Starting line-ups
KVC Westerlo (4-2-3-1)
Zulte Waregem (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave KVC Westerlo 32%, the draw 27%, Zulte Waregem 41%. It finished KVC Westerlo 2–2 Zulte Waregem.
Zulte Waregem's rating edge outweighs KVC Westerlo's home ground — Zulte Waregem are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Zulte Waregem the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Zulte Waregem at 41%?
Zulte Waregem sit 175 points higher on our strength rating — 1477 to 1652. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,122 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims KVC Westerlo's column. Across 10,823 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–28–44.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and KVC Westerlo at 32%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,046. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
KVC Westerlo average 5 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 175 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Zulte Waregem scored +0.45 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,810 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the KVC Westerlo vs Zulte Waregem final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the KVC Westerlo and Zulte Waregem team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.