St. Truiden vs OH Leuven — Jupiler Pro League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 24′St. Truiden, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 32′St. Truiden, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- Half-time
- 46′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 46′St. Truiden, goal:1–0assist
- 53′OH Leuven, goal:1–1assist
- 55′OH Leuven, yellow card:Foul
- 67′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 67′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 67′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 72′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 73′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 81′OH Leuven, goal:1–2assist
- 84′St. Truiden, substitution:off
- 84′St. Truiden, yellow card:Foul
- 88′OH Leuven, yellow card:Foul
- 90+3′OH Leuven, yellow card:Time wasting
- 90+5′OH Leuven, yellow card:Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 90+5′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 2
Lineups
Tap a player for match stats
Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
St. Truiden
OH Leuven
Match report
OH Leuven come from behind to beat St. Truiden 2-1
OH Leuven won 2-1 away to St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League on Matchday 10 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, recovering from a goal down to take all three points. The match was goalless at half-time, and the home side struck first almost immediately after the restart.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Nathanaël Mbuku put St. Truiden ahead in the 46th minute, finishing from Frederic Soelle Soelle's assist. The lead lasted only seven minutes. Robin Mirisola levelled in the 53rd minute after Siebe Schrijvers set him up, and the match stayed at 1-1 until late in the second half.
Davis Opoku scored the winner in the 81st minute, converting a pass from Wouter George to make it 2-1 to the visitors. St. Truiden had far more of the ball and territory, but could not find an equaliser.
The result lifted OH Leuven from 16th to 14th in the table on nine points, one ahead of St. Truiden, who dropped from 14th to 15th on eight. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given OH Leuven a 22% chance of winning. St. Truiden host Brann in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday, while OH Leuven entertain KV Mechelen in the league on Saturday.
Dani van den Heuvel was the highest-rated player on the pitch with a 9.9 rating for OH Leuven. Mirisola's equaliser earned him a rating of 8.3, matching Mbuku's for the hosts.
St. Truiden had 61% of possession but still lost, with OH Leuven taking their chances on the break.
OH Leuven won 2–1 away against St. Truiden (half-time 0–0).
St. Truiden met OH Leuven in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off was Sunday, 1 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Daio Wasabi Stayen. Referee: Michiel Allaerts.
Team pages: St. Truiden · OH Leuven · Jupiler Pro League
Key moments
- 46' Goal: Nathanaël Mbuku (assist: Frederic Soelle Soelle) — 1–0
- 53' Goal: Robin Mirisola (assist: Siebe Schrijvers) — 1–1
- 81' Goal: Davis Opoku (assist: Wouter George) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
St. Truiden (4-2-3-1)
OH Leuven (3-4-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave St. Truiden 55%, the draw 23%, OH Leuven 22%. It finished St. Truiden 1–2 OH Leuven.
Strength rating puts St. Truiden clearly in front — We give St. Truiden 55% mainly because our strength rating has them 147 points higher, 1578 to 1431, though OH Leuven's cold finishing pulls slightly the other way, as streaks like theirs have tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 23%, a little under the usual 25% for a gap this size, trimmed by that finishing streak and both sides' recent games averaging 3.0 goals.
Why St. Truiden at 55%?
St. Truiden sit 147 points higher on our strength rating — 1578 to 1431. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,375 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–22–17.
Why only 55%?
OH Leuven sit -0.48 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.3% of 2,981 such games where the class table expected 35.5%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,278. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Truiden have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than OH Leuven in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. In our recorded league results, OH Leuven are winless in their last 9 away games: 4 draws and 5 defeats. The run began on 12 April 2026. Last recorded away league win: 14 March 2026 — Charleroi 0–2 OH Leuven. Latest recorded away league result: 11 October 2026 — Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven. Across 14,247 historical matches involving visitors with at least six consecutive winless away league games, those visitors won 24.5%, compared with 24.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the St. Truiden vs OH Leuven final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Jupiler Pro League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the St. Truiden and OH Leuven team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.