Castellón vs 04.10.26 16:301 – 1Full Time
AD Ceuta FC — Segunda División: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Castellón held to draw by struggling Ceuta at Estadio Municipal Castalia
Castellón's run of five straight wins was checked as AD Ceuta FC came away from Estadio Municipal Castalia with a 1-1 draw in Segunda División's eighth round. The hosts led at half-time but could not hold on, leaving the table-toppers to settle for a point against the division's bottom side.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Israel Suero needed just two minutes to put Castellón ahead, turning in a Varo García assist to send the home crowd into early celebration. The lead held through the interval, but Ceuta responded eight minutes into the second half when Jordi Escobar converted a Joaquín pass to level the score at 1-1, a scoreline that stood for the remainder of the contest.
Castellón dominated territory with 72 percent of possession and forced ten shots to Ceuta's thirteen, though the visitors were sharper in front of goal, landing four shots on target compared to the hosts' two. Ceuta also won more corners, seven to three, and picked up three yellow cards to Castellón's one as the away side fought for the share of the points.
Jordi Escobar scored the equaliser that salvaged a point for Ceuta, earning a rating of 8.2 to match Israel Suero's mark for the opener at the other end.
Despite controlling 72 percent of possession, Castellón were outshot by Ceuta's four shots on target to their two.
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Castellón met AD Ceuta FC in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Sunday, 4 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Estadio Municipal de Castalia. Referee: Marta Huerta de Aza.
Team pages: Castellón · AD Ceuta FC · Segunda División
Key moments
- 2' Goal: Israel Suero (assist: Varo García) — 1–0
- 53' Goal: Jordi Escobar (assist: Joaquín González) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Castellón (3-4-2-1)
AD Ceuta FC (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Castellón 64%, the draw 21%, AD Ceuta FC 15%. It finished Castellón 1–1 AD Ceuta FC.
Castellón's rating gap decides it — Castellón are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Castellón's 64%. The draw at 21% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Castellón at 64%?
Castellón sit 204 points higher on our strength rating — 1600 to 1396. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,610 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 63–22–15.
Why only 64%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 64% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and AD Ceuta FC at 15%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 21.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,099.
What did we measure but not count?
Castellón have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than AD Ceuta FC in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Castellón have gained 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,167 such games vs 40.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Segunda División fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Castellón 1–1 AD Ceuta FC. Explore more on the Castellón and AD Ceuta FC team pages or the Segunda División page.