Montpellier vs Metz — Ligue 2: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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MontpellierMetzMontpellierMetzMatch preview
Montpellier host Metz in Ligue 2 with second place and a four-game winning run
Montpellier welcome Metz to Stade de la Mosson on Ligue 2 Matchday 12 sitting second in the table on 24 points from 11 games. Zoumana Camara's side are unbeaten in six and have won their last four, the most recent of those a 3-0 victory away at Annecy on 31 October.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Metz, managed by Gregory Proment, arrive tenth on 14 points after 11 games, eight places and 10 points behind their hosts. Their last time out brought a 3-1 home defeat to PAU on 30 October, following a 1-1 draw at Dunkerque a week earlier.
Across their last five league games Montpellier have kept three clean sheets and conceded only twice, while scoring 11. Metz have shipped 12 goals in their last five, and of their last five away games they have drawn three, lost two and won none.
Across their last 5 meetings, Montpellier won 4, Metz won 0, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Metz 0–4 Montpellier on 11 January 2026.
Montpellier have won four and drawn one of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding two, while Metz have won one, drawn two and lost two, conceding 12.
Montpellier have won three and drawn two of their last five home games, keeping three clean sheets, while Metz are still looking for a first win in their last five away games.
Montpellier meet Metz in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98. Referee: Eddy Rosier.
Team pages: Montpellier · Metz · Ligue 2
Sirius · Why these numbers
Montpellier 56% · Draw 26% · Metz 18%
Montpellier's stronger rating sets the lead — Montpellier sit 135 points higher on our strength rating, 1605 to 1470, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 56% to Metz's 18%. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.5 goals.
Why Montpellier at 56%?
Montpellier sit 135 points higher on our strength rating — 1605 to 1470. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 60–27–13.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Metz at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Montpellier scored +0.35 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Montpellier have gained 75 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Montpellier vs Metz, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 2 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Montpellier and Metz team pages or the Ligue 2 page.