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PAUNantesPAUNantesMatch preview
PAU host Nantes in Ligue 2 with a five-game winning run
PAU welcome Nantes to Nouste Camp on Ligue 2 Matchday 12 in contrasting league circumstances. The hosts sit fifth with 20 points from 11 games, while Nantes are 15th on 9 points, 10 places and 11 points behind. Thierry Debes's side arrive having won their last five games.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
That sequence has brought 12 goals in five matches, including a 1-3 victory at Metz last time out. PAU conceded five in the same spell, so the run has not been built on clean sheets: only one of the five finished without a goal against.
Gregory Poirier's Nantes have won one of their last five, drawn two and lost two, scoring five and conceding six. They lost 1-0 at Saint Etienne before drawing 1-1 at home to Clermont Foot. Both sides have faced Dunkerque recently: PAU beat them 2-0 at home, while Nantes lost 2-3 to them at home.
The most recent meeting was PAU 1–4 Nantes on 5 January 2024.
PAU have won all five of their recent games, scoring 12 goals, while Nantes have won once, drawn twice and lost twice in theirs.
Both sides have played Dunkerque, with PAU winning 2-0 at home and Nantes losing 3-2 in their home game against them.
PAU meet Nantes in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Nouste Camp. Referee: Antoine Valnet.
Sirius · Why these numbers
PAU 33% · Draw 29% · Nantes 38%
Nantes edge it as their finishing should recover — We give Nantes 38% to PAU's 33%, mainly because Nantes have scored fewer goals than their chances deserved, and cold streaks like that tend to bounce back, while their greater share of the ball adds a little more. The draw sits at 29%, up from the usual 27% between sides this level, lifted by that ball control and the finishing streak.
Why Nantes in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1466 to 1487. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Nantes sit -0.52 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Nantes hold 8 more possession points (53 to 45 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 38%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 29% and PAU at 33%.
Why the draw at 29%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
PAU have gained 81 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. PAU come into this after a busy window — 20 arrivals, 18 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for PAU vs Nantes, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 2 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the PAU and Nantes team pages or the Ligue 2 page.