Saint Etienne vs Laval — Ligue 2: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Saint Etienne host Laval on Ligue 2 matchday 12
Table-topping Saint Etienne welcome Laval to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on matchday 12 of Ligue 2. Ian Cathro's side lead the division with 25 points from 11 games, while David Vignes's Laval are 16th on nine, a gap of 15 places and 16 points between the two.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Saint Etienne arrive after a 3-0 defeat at Guingamp, which interrupted a run of three straight wins. Across their last five they have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring six and conceding five, with three clean sheets in that spell.
Laval's last five brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with seven goals scored and eight conceded. They beat Boulogne 1-0 at home last time out, having lost 1-0 at Nancy a week earlier. Away from home, though, Laval have lost four of their last five, conceding 11 goals in those games, while Saint Etienne have won all of their last five at home.
Across their last 5 meetings, Saint Etienne won 2, Laval won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Saint Etienne 2–1 Laval on 21 February 2026. Laval's latest win in this sample was Laval 2–1 Saint Etienne on 13 May 2023.
Saint Etienne have won three of their last five and Laval one, though the leaders lost 3-0 at Guingamp last time out and Laval beat Boulogne 1-0.
Saint Etienne have won each of their last five home games, scoring 13 goals and keeping three clean sheets, while Laval have lost four of their last five away from home.
Saint Etienne meet Laval in the Ligue 2 (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Referee: Karim Abed.
Team pages: Saint Etienne · Laval · Ligue 2
Sirius · Why these numbers
Saint Etienne 67% · Draw 19% · Laval 14%
Saint Etienne's strength edge drives a clear lead — Saint Etienne sit 177 points higher on our strength rating, 1583 to 1407, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 67% against 14% for Laval. The draw sits at 19%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' own recent games average 3.1 goals.
Why Saint Etienne at 67%?
Saint Etienne sit 177 points higher on our strength rating — 1583 to 1407. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–20–16.
Why only 67%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 67% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Laval at 14%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Saint Etienne scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Saint Etienne are unbeaten in their last 8 home league games: 6 wins and 2 draws. The run began on 9 May 2026. It covers all 5 home league games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 25 April 2026 — Saint Etienne 0–3 Estac Troyes. Latest home league result: 24 October 2026 — Saint Etienne 1–0 Nantes. Across 16,587 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Saint Etienne vs Laval, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 2 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Saint Etienne and Laval team pages or the Ligue 2 page.