FC Augsburg vs 10.10.26 13:302 – 2Full Time
Bayern München — Bundesliga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
FC Augsburg hold Bayern München to 2-2 draw after scoring inside a minute
FC Augsburg and Bayern München drew 2-2 at the WWK Arena in a Bundesliga Matchday 5 fixture. The hosts struck inside the opening minute through Robin Fellhauer and held that lead until the interval, despite being heavily outplayed across the first half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Bayern equalised ten minutes after the restart. Harry Kane supplied the pass for Ismael Saibari to make it 1-1 in the 55th minute. Augsburg restored their advantage in the 64th minute when Rodrigo Ribeiro scored from a Calvin Brackelmann assist, making it 2-1.
Kane provided again in the 80th minute, this time for Nathaniel Brown, whose goal levelled the match at 2-2. Neither side found a winner after that, and no red cards were shown. The result left Augsburg fifth on eight points after five games, while Bayern stayed second on 11.
Bayern controlled 70 per cent of possession and had 29 shots to Augsburg's 12, with 10 on target against five. Augsburg, who collected three yellow cards to Bayern's none, relied on their two goals and a resilient defensive effort to claim a point.
Finn Dahmen was the highest-rated performer on the pitch with a rating of 7.96 for Augsburg, ahead of Bayern's Joshua Kimmich on 7.84.
Bayern had 70 per cent of the possession, yet Augsburg left the WWK Arena with a point.
FC Augsburg and Bayern München drew 2–2 (half-time 1–0).
FC Augsburg met Bayern München in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 5). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC at WWK Arena. Referee: Sven Jablonski. Attendance: 30,660.
Team pages: FC Augsburg · Bayern München · Bundesliga
Key moments
- 1' Goal: Robin Fellhauer — 1–0 · Watch Robin Fellhauer's goal video (1')
- 55' Goal: Ismael Saibari (assist: Harry Kane) — 1–1 · Watch Ismael Saibari's goal video (55')
- 64' Goal: Rodrigo Ribeiro (assist: Calvin Brackelmann) — 2–1 · Watch Rodrigo Ribeiro's goal video (64')
- 80' Goal: Nathaniel Brown (assist: Harry Kane) — 2–2 · Watch Nathaniel Brown's goal video (80')
Starting line-ups
FC Augsburg (3-4-2-1)
Bayern München (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave FC Augsburg 12%, the draw 14%, Bayern München 74%. It finished FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München.
Bayern München's rating gap outweighs FC Augsburg's home ground — Bayern München are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top makes it one-sided for Bayern München. The draw at 14% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Bayern München at 74%?
Bayern München sit 439 points higher on our strength rating — 1645 to 2084. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 5,860 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims FC Augsburg's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 13–12–75.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 74% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 14% and FC Augsburg at 12%.
Why is the draw only 14%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 13.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bayern München have averaged 28 percentage points more possession than FC Augsburg in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. FC Augsburg have gained 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 39.9% of 11,169 such games vs 40.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the FC Augsburg vs Bayern München final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Bundesliga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Robin Fellhauer's goal against Bayern München (1').
- Watch Ismael Saibari's goal against FC Augsburg (55').
- Watch Rodrigo Ribeiro's goal against Bayern München (64').
- Watch Nathaniel Brown's goal against FC Augsburg (80').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München. Explore more on the FC Augsburg and Bayern München team pages or the Bundesliga page.