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FamalicaoAroucaFamalicaoAroucaMatch preview
Famalicao seek a way out of poor form against in-form Arouca
Famalicao host Arouca at Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho on Primeira Liga Matchday 11, with the two sides separated by six places. Famalicao sit 11th on 10 points from 10 games, while Arouca are fifth on 20, ten points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Ricardo Silva's side arrive having lost three of their last five, conceding 10 goals in that spell and failing to score twice. Their one win was a 4-0 victory at Rio Ave, and their latest outing was a 3-0 defeat away to SC Braga, three days after a 2-2 draw at the same opponents.
Vitor Severino's Arouca have won their last 4 games, scoring nine goals in their last five league outings and keeping three clean sheets. That sequence began with a 1-0 win over Estrela and runs through to a 1-0 home victory over Nacional on 1 November, following a 2-2 draw with Sporting CP on 19 September.
Across their last 5 meetings, Famalicao won 2, Arouca won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Famalicao 1–0 Arouca on 6 March 2026. Arouca's latest win in this sample was Arouca 3–2 Famalicao on 23 February 2024.
Arouca are unbeaten in their last five with four wins, while Famalicao have lost three of theirs and conceded 10 goals.
Both sides have faced Alverca recently: Famalicao lost 4-1 at home to them, while Arouca won 1-0 away.
Famalicao meet Arouca in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 20:45 UTC at Estádio Municipal de Famalicão. Referee: Gustavo Fernandes Correia.
Team pages: Famalicao · Arouca · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Famalicao 45% · Draw 28% · Arouca 27%
Home advantage gives Famalicao a slight lean — Almost nothing separates the sides on our strength rating, 1567 to 1561, so the usual home advantage is the main reason we give Famalicao 45% to Arouca's 27%. The draw sits at 28%, starting from the usual rate for sides this level, nudged up by typical scoring in both teams' recent games and slightly down by a finishing streak.
Why Famalicao in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1567 to 1561. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 45%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and Arouca at 27%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Arouca win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Famalicao scored +0.48 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Arouca are 4 games into a new manager (Vitor Severino), appointed 26 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Famalicao vs Arouca, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Famalicao and Arouca team pages or the Primeira Liga page.