Sporting CP vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Sporting CPMoreirenseSporting CPMoreirenseMatch preview
Sporting CP host Moreirense in Primeira Liga matchday 11
Sporting CP welcome Moreirense to the Estádio José Alvalade on matchday 11 of the Primeira Liga, with Rui Borges' side third in the table on 21 points from 10 games. Vasco Costa's Moreirense sit ninth on 14 points, seven behind and six places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sporting arrive on a run of three wins, most recently a 1-0 victory away to Shakhtar Donetsk. Before that came a 2-0 win at Casa Pia and a 2-1 home success against Maritimo, following back-to-back home defeats to LASK and Academico Viseu.
Moreirense have won their last two, a 3-1 victory at Estoril and a 2-1 home win over Estrela, after losing to GIL Vicente and AVS. Across their last five, they have scored six and conceded five without a clean sheet, while Sporting have kept two in the same span.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sporting CP won 4, Moreirense won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Moreirense 0–3 Sporting CP on 21 February 2026. Moreirense's latest win in this sample was Moreirense 2–1 Sporting CP on 5 December 2024.
Sporting have won three of their last five and kept two clean sheets, while Moreirense have won two, lost two and drawn one, failing to score twice.
Sporting have won two of their last five home games but conceded nine goals in them, while Moreirense have won two of their last five away.
Sporting CP meet Moreirense in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 20:30 UTC at Estádio José Alvalade. Referee: Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves.
Team pages: Sporting CP · Moreirense · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sporting CP 82% · Draw 11% · Moreirense 7%
A big strength gap makes Sporting CP clear favourites — We give Sporting CP 82% mainly because they sit 351 points higher on our strength rating, 1834 to 1483, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 11%, right at the usual draw rate for a strength gap this size, as nothing listed moves it.
Why Sporting CP at 82%?
Sporting CP sit 351 points higher on our strength rating — 1834 to 1483. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.6% of 5,987 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 83–10–7.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 82% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 11% and Moreirense at 7%.
Why is the draw only 11%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 11.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Sporting CP have averaged 17 percentage points more possession than Moreirense in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Sporting CP come into this after a busy window — 12 arrivals, 12 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sporting CP vs Moreirense, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sporting CP and Moreirense team pages or the Primeira Liga page.