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AlvercaCasa PiaAlvercaCasa PiaMatch preview
Alverca host Casa Pia on Primeira Liga matchday 11
Alverca welcome Casa Pia to Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca for matchday 11 of the Primeira Liga. The hosts sit tenth with 11 points from 10 games, while the visitors, managed by Filipe Coelho, are 17th on seven points, four behind Alverca and seven places lower.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sergio Ferreira's side arrive on a poor run, having lost their last three games, most recently 1-0 away to Benfica. Before that came defeats to Tondela and Arouca, with the 4-1 win at Famalicao the highlight of their last five. They have failed to score in three of those five matches.
Casa Pia have won three of their last five, including 2-1 at Estoril, 1-0 at Alpendorada and 2-0 at Estrela. They were beaten 2-0 at home by Sporting CP last time out. Of their last five away games, Coelho's team have won three, drawn one and lost one.
Across their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia on 12 April 2026.
Alverca have lost their last three games, while Casa Pia have won three of their last five despite a 2-0 home defeat to Sporting CP last time out.
Casa Pia have kept three clean sheets in their last five away games, while Alverca have won one of their last five at home.
Alverca meet Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Referee: Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho.
Team pages: Alverca · Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Alverca 49% · Draw 28% · Casa Pia 23%
Alverca's stronger rating gives them the edge — Alverca sit 67 points higher on our strength rating, 1502 to 1435, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 49% to Casa Pia's 23%. The draw starts from the usual 27% for a gap this size and rises slightly to 28%, as both sides' own recent games average a typical 2.5 goals.
Why Alverca at 49%?
Alverca sit 67 points higher on our strength rating — 1502 to 1435. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 49%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 49% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Casa Pia at 23%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Casa Pia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Alverca come into this after a busy window — 16 arrivals and 13 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Casa Pia have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Alverca vs Casa Pia, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Alverca and Casa Pia team pages or the Primeira Liga page.