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Estoril
MaritimoEstorilMaritimoMatch preview
Estoril and Maritimo meet in Primeira Liga basement battle
Estoril host Maritimo at the Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota on matchday 11 of the Primeira Liga, with the home side sitting 18th on 2 points from 10 games. Maritimo are 14th on 8 points, four places and six points clear of their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Estoril, managed by Leandro Pires, have not won in 19 games. Of their last five outings, they lost four and drew one, scoring four goals and conceding 12. Their latest result was a 4-0 defeat away to FC Porto on 31 October.
Maritimo, under Mitchell van der Gaag, arrive on a run of three straight defeats. They lost four of their last five, with their only win a 2-1 success at Alcochetense on 18 October. Their most recent game was a 2-0 home defeat to Santa Clara on 1 November.
Across their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 2, Maritimo won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Estoril 3–1 Maritimo on 27 May 2023. Maritimo's latest win in this sample was Maritimo 1–0 Estoril on 22 January 2023.
Estoril have lost four and drawn one of their last five, while Maritimo have lost four and won one, so neither side arrives with recent momentum.
Both sides have faced FC Porto in the past month: Estoril lost 4-0 away on 31 October, while Maritimo went down 2-1 at home on 10 October.
Estoril meet Maritimo in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Team pages: Estoril · Maritimo · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Estoril 51% · Draw 26% · Maritimo 23%
Strength rating gives Estoril a slight lean — Our strength rating has Estoril a shade stronger, 1416 to 1347, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 51% to Maritimo's 23%. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why Estoril at 51%?
Estoril sit 69 points higher on our strength rating — 1416 to 1347. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Maritimo at 23%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Estoril sit -0.50 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Estoril have shed 94 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Estoril vs Maritimo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Estoril and Maritimo team pages or the Primeira Liga page.