Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Santa ClaraGIL VicenteSanta ClaraGIL VicenteMatch preview
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga matchday 11
Santa Clara welcome GIL Vicente in matchday 11 of the Primeira Liga, with the hosts occupying fourth place on 21 points from ten games. GIL Vicente sit seventh on 15 points, so three places and six points separate the sides, with Santa Clara the higher-placed team.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Petit's side arrive off a 2-0 win away to Maritimo on 1 November, their most recent outing. Before that came a 2-1 home defeat to Benfica, and a 3-2 loss at Mafra on 18 October, though they won 1-0 at Casa Pia on 10 October.
Luis Pinto's GIL Vicente were held to a goalless draw at home by Guimaraes last time out, following a 4-1 defeat at Benfica and a 1-0 home loss to FC Porto. Before that run they had won at União Santarém and at SC Braga in October, scoring three and two goals respectively.
Across their last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 4, GIL Vicente won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Santa Clara 1–0 GIL Vicente on 21 March 2026. GIL Vicente's latest win in this sample was GIL Vicente 1–0 Santa Clara on 3 November 2025.
Santa Clara have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, while GIL Vicente have the same record of two wins, one draw and two defeats, though Santa Clara have kept three clean sheets to GIL Vicente's one.
Both sides have faced Benfica and SC Braga recently: Santa Clara lost 2-1 to Benfica and drew 0-0 with Braga, while GIL Vicente lost 4-1 at Benfica and won 2-1 at Braga.
Santa Clara meet GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC at Estádio de São Miguel.
Team pages: Santa Clara · GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Santa Clara 39% · Draw 31% · GIL Vicente 30%
Home advantage gives Santa Clara a slight edge — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, Santa Clara's usual home advantage puts them narrowly in front at 39%, though GIL Vicente's cold finishing streak pulls the other way, as streaks like this have tended to bounce back. The draw rises from its usual 27.5% to 31%, mostly because both teams' recent games average just 2.1 goals.
Why Santa Clara in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1560 to 1521. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. GIL Vicente sit -0.38 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the GIL Vicente win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.1 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.1% of 19,748. The goals environment adds 3.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Santa Clara have gained 69 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. GIL Vicente have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Santa Clara and GIL Vicente team pages or the Primeira Liga page.