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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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EstrelaBenficaEstrelaBenficaMatch preview
Estrela host Benfica on a seven-game winning run
Matchday 11 of the Primeira Liga brings second-placed Benfica to Estrela, who sit 12th. Benfica have 25 points from 10 games and Estrela have 10, a gap of 15 points and 10 places in the table, with Marco Silva's side the higher-placed team.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Benfica arrive having won their last seven games. In their last five they scored 14 goals and conceded four, keeping one clean sheet. Their latest outing was a 3-1 home win over Lech Poznan on 5 November, following a 1-0 victory over Alverca three days earlier.
Pepa's Estrela come into the game having lost four of their last five. They failed to score in three of those games, and the one win in the sequence was 2-1 away to Fazendense. Their most recent match was a 2-1 defeat at Moreirense on 31 October, and in their last five home games they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice.
Across their last 5 meetings, Estrela won 0, Benfica won 5, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Benfica 4–0 Estrela on 25 January 2026.
Benfica have won all five of their recent games while Estrela have lost four of their last five and scored only three goals in that spell.
Estrela failed to score in two of their last five home games, while Benfica scored 13 goals in their last five away games.
Estrela meet Benfica in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 20:30 UTC at Estádio José Gomes.
Team pages: Estrela · Benfica · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Estrela 10% · Draw 15% · Benfica 75%
Benfica's big strength edge shapes a one-sided forecast — Benfica sit 466 points higher on our strength rating, 1874 to 1407, which is easily enough to outweigh the usual home advantage Estrela enjoy, so we give Benfica 75%. The draw starts at the usual 17% for a gap this size and slips to 15% because both teams' own recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Benfica at 75%?
Benfica sit 466 points higher on our strength rating — 1874 to 1407. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 7–16–77.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 75% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Estrela at 10%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Benfica have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Estrela in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Estrela have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Estrela vs Benfica, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Estrela and Benfica team pages or the Primeira Liga page.