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GuimaraesFC PortoGuimaraesFC PortoMatch preview
Guimaraes host league leaders FC Porto on Primeira Liga matchday 11
Guimaraes, managed by Tiago Margarido, welcome FC Porto in the Primeira Liga on matchday 11, with the two sides separated by a wide margin in the table. The hosts sit 13th on 9 points from 10 games, while the visitors lead the division on 30 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Francesco Farioli's side arrive on a run of four consecutive wins, a sequence that began with a 1-0 success at GIL Vicente on 24 October. They followed it with a 1-0 home win over Academico Viseu, a 4-0 victory against Estoril and a 4-1 win over Napoli in their most recent outing on 4 November.
Guimaraes have been harder to read. Their last five games brought two wins, two draws and one defeat, and they were held to a goalless draw at GIL Vicente last time out on 2 November. Across those five matches they kept three clean sheets, but they also failed to score in two.
Across their last 5 meetings, Guimaraes won 1, FC Porto won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Guimaraes 0–1 FC Porto on 18 January 2026. Guimaraes's latest win in this sample was FC Porto 1–3 Guimaraes on 4 December 2025.
Porto have won four of their last five and scored 10 goals in the process, whereas Guimaraes have won two, drawn two and lost one, with seven goals scored.
Both sides have faced GIL Vicente recently: Porto won 1-0 there on 24 October, while Guimaraes drew 0-0 away to the same opponent on 2 November.
Guimaraes meet FC Porto in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.
Team pages: Guimaraes · FC Porto · Primeira Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Guimaraes 15% · Draw 18% · FC Porto 67%
FC Porto's strength rating gives them a clear lead — We give FC Porto 67% mainly because they sit 321 points higher on our strength rating, 1837 to 1516, which outweighs the usual home advantage Guimaraes enjoy. The draw sits at 18%, starting from the usual 17% for a gap this size and nudged up slightly because both teams' recent games average 2.5 goals.
Why FC Porto at 67%?
FC Porto sit 321 points higher on our strength rating — 1837 to 1516. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 15–17–68.
Why only 67%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 67% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Guimaraes at 15%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 11 visits to Guimaraes: 10 wins and 1 draw, across 10 Primeira Liga games and 1 Taça de Portugal game. Last recorded defeat there: 17 January 2016 — Guimaraes 1–0 FC Porto. Latest visit: 18 January 2026 — Guimaraes 0–1 FC Porto. Across 2,308 historical matches involving visitors unbeaten in at least five consecutive visits, those visitors won 47.3%, compared with 45.2% expected from the teams' strength ratings. FC Porto played 3 competitive matches between 28 October and 4 November 2026 (UTC dates). Guimaraes played 1 match in the same 14-day window before kickoff. The busier schedule is worth watching.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Guimaraes vs FC Porto, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Primeira Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Guimaraes and FC Porto team pages or the Primeira Liga page.