Match preview
Eyüpspor and Göztepe meet at the foot of the Süper Lig table
Matchday 7 of the Süper Lig brings together two clubs separated by a single place and level on points. Eyüpspor, managed by Ozhan Pulat, sit 18th, while Göztepe, under Stanimir Stoilov, are 17th. Each has played six games and collected three points, so the fixture carries obvious weight for both.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Eyüpspor arrive on the back of a heavy defeat at Fenerbahçe, where they lost 8-0 on 20 September. Before that they went down 2-0 at home to Rizespor, and their only win in the last five was a 2-1 success over Alanyaspor on 30 August.
Göztepe have been harder to separate from their opponents of late, drawing 2-2 with Rizespor at home on 20 September and by the same score at Alanyaspor eight days earlier. Those two draws followed defeats to Gaziantep FK and Galatasaray, and a 1-0 loss to Gençlerbirliği S.K. in August leaves them without a win in five.
Across their last 4 meetings, Eyüpspor won 1, Göztepe won 0, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Göztepe 0–0 Eyüpspor on 28 February 2026. Eyüpspor's latest win in this sample was Eyüpspor 1–0 Göztepe on 19 October 2024.
Team news as of 12 October: Eyüpspor have Abdelhamid Sabiri listed as out. Göztepe have Allan Godói, Furkan Bayır, Gökdeniz Bayrakdar, Ibrahim Sabra and Noah Sonko-Sundberg listed as out, and 1 player as doubtful.
Eyüpspor have lost four of their last five, while Göztepe are winless in five but have drawn their last two.
Eyüpspor meet Göztepe in the Süper Lig (Regular Season - 7). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC. Referee: Atilla Karaoglan.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Eyüpspor 34% · Draw 25% · Göztepe 41%
Göztepe's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Göztepe sit 95 points higher on our strength rating, 1530 to 1435, which is the main reason we give them 41%, though Eyüpspor's habit of keeping more of the ball pulls a little the other way. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for this gap, and drops to 25% because both sides' recent games average 3.5 goals.
Why Göztepe at 41%?
Göztepe sit 95 points higher on our strength rating — 1435 to 1530. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,830 such games. Göztepe sit -0.43 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,519 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. The 300 most similar past games finished 35–29–36.
Why only 41%?
Eyüpspor hold 7 more possession points (45 to 38 in recent games) across a 95-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,629 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,894. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Eyüpspor scored +0.36 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,831 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Eyüpspor come into this after a busy window — 15 arrivals, 14 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Süper Lig fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Eyüpspor and Göztepe team pages or the Süper Lig page.