Marseille vs 15.10.26 19:000 – 1Full Time
Olympiakos Piraeus — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Olympiakos Piraeus edge Marseille 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome
Olympiakos Piraeus won 1-0 at Marseille in the second matchday of the UEFA Europa League league stage, Santiago Hezze's strike just before the break proving enough on a night when the hosts held most of the possession and the territorial advantage.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The only goal arrived in the 42nd minute. Chiquinho supplied the pass and Hezze finished to put the visitors 1-0 up, the score at half-time and, as it turned out, at the end. Neither side was shown a red card, and each collected two yellows in a contest of 15 fouls by Marseille and 11 by Olympiakos.
Marseille had 56 per cent of the ball and 11 shots to nine, five of them on target against four, yet could not find an equaliser. Their corner count of nine to one underlined the pressure they applied after the interval without breaking down Olympiakos.
Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Olympiakos Piraeus a 22% chance of winning. Marseille next travel to Angers in Ligue 1 on Sunday, while Olympiakos host Sparta Praha in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October.
Hezze scored the decisive goal and earned a match rating of 8.2, the highest of any player on the pitch. Stefan Ortega, rated 7.9 for Olympiakos, was the next best.
Marseille won the corner count by nine to one but could not turn that territorial pressure into a goal.
Olympiakos Piraeus won 1–0 away against Marseille (half-time 0–1).
Marseille met Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 2). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Orange Vélodrome. Referee: Michael Oliver.
Team pages: Marseille · Olympiakos Piraeus · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 42' Goal: Santiago Hezze (assist: Chiquinho) — 0–1 · Watch Santiago Hezze's goal video (42')
Starting line-ups
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Olympiakos Piraeus (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Marseille 52%, the draw 26%, Olympiakos Piraeus 22%. It finished Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Marseille's grip on the ball gives them the edge — Our strength rating has almost nothing between these sides, so the usual home advantage and Marseille's control of the ball, 54 to 45 in possession in recent games, are why we give them 52%. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate between sides this level, and the lower draw rate in the UEFA Europa League brings it down to 26%.
Why Marseille in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1708 to 1682. Sides this close won 45.8% of 13,721 home games (draw 27.6%, visitors 26.6%). Marseille hold 9 more possession points (54 to 45 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,142 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (23.2% vs 25.4% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.0% of 4,456 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 52%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 26% and Olympiakos Piraeus at 22%.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,322. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.2 points off. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Olympiakos Piraeus are 1 game into a new manager (Imanol Alguacil), appointed 44 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, a star player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus. Explore more on the Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.