Sparta Praha vs 15.10.26 16:451 – 1Full Time
Lillestrom — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Lillestrom snatch late equaliser to draw 1-1 at Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha and Lillestrom finished 1-1 at Stadion Letná in a UEFA Europa League league-stage matchday 2 fixture. The Czech side dominated the shot count with 15 attempts to 6, but a stoppage-time goal from the visitors denied them the win.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was goalless at half-time. Sparta broke the deadlock in the 56th minute when Josimar Alcócer scored from a Jonatan Braut Brunes assist, and the hosts looked on course for victory as they kept Lillestrom at bay, forcing eight shots on target against two for the Norwegians.
Lillestrom struck when time was almost up. In the 90+1 minute, Thomas Lehne Olsen converted a Gustav Nordh assist to make it 1-1. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given the draw a 15% chance. Both sides play again on Thursday 22 October in the Europa League: Sparta travel to Olympiakos Piraeus, while Lillestrom host Real Sociedad.
Thomas Lehne Olsen earned the highest rating on the pitch, 8.2, for his stoppage-time goal that rescued a point for Lillestrom. Josimar Alcócer, who scored the opener for Sparta, was rated 8.0.
Sparta Praha had 15 shots to Lillestrom's 6, yet could not turn that advantage into a win.
Sparta Praha and Lillestrom drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Sparta Praha met Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 2). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC at Stadion Letná. Referee: Martin Matoša.
Team pages: Sparta Praha · Lillestrom · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 56' Goal: Josimar Alcócer (assist: Jonatan Braut Brunes) — 1–0
- 90+1' Goal: Thomas Lehne Olsen (assist: Gustav Nordh) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Sparta Praha (4-2-3-1)
Lillestrom (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sparta Praha 78%, the draw 15%, Lillestrom 7%. It finished Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom.
Big strength gap makes Sparta Praha clear favourites — We give Sparta Praha 78% mainly because they sit 285 points higher on our strength rating, 1590 to 1305, and home sides in the UEFA Europa League generally do better than the global norm. The draw sits at 15%, starting from the usual 17% for a gap this size and lowered by the competition's typical draw rate.
Why Sparta Praha at 78%?
Sparta Praha sit 285 points higher on our strength rating — 1590 to 1305. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,559 such games. UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (23.2% vs 25.4% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.0% of 4,456 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 74–18–8.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 78% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Lillestrom at 7%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,180. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.2 points off.
What did we measure but not count?
Sparta Praha's last five in the competitions we cover: W-L-W — the hotter side across the games we track. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 43.4% of 1902 games when clearly hotter and 43.7% of 3649 when clearly colder. Lillestrom have 9 fully-tracked matches with us — under our usual 25-game bar — but their strength rating is anchored to the long-run European club ratings list, which carries their wider competitive history into the number. Clubs from leagues we don't fully cover play too few tracked games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from published long-run club ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Sparta Praha and Lillestrom team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.