Serbia vs 27.09.26 16:001 – 2Full Time
Netherlands — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Meerdink double sinks Serbia as Netherlands go top of Group 2
Netherlands won 2-1 away to Serbia in matchday two of the UEFA Nations League League A group phase, dominating for long spells to move top of Group 2 while Serbia remained without a win. The three goals came from two players, with the visitors always seeming a step ahead in the closing stages.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Mexx Meerdink opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 30th minute to put Netherlands ahead at the break. Serbia responded immediately after the restart, Luka Jović levelling in the 46th minute with an assist from Saša Lukić. The hosts' revival was short-lived, however, as Meerdink struck again in the 69th minute, teed up by Guus Til, to restore the visitors' lead for good.
Netherlands controlled proceedings throughout, holding 67 percent of possession and firing 25 shots to Serbia's 11, with eight of those on target compared to six for the hosts. Serbia committed more fouls, ten to seven, as they struggled to contain the visitors' rhythm, while a single yellow card for each side kept discipline largely intact.
Mexx Meerdink scored both Netherlands goals, including the opening penalty, to finish with a rating of 8.2 and seal the win on the road.
Netherlands' 67 percent share of possession underlined their control over a match in which Serbia rarely settled.
Netherlands won 2–1 away against Serbia (half-time 0–1).
Serbia met Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 2). Kick-off was Sunday, 27 September 2026, 16:00 UTC at Rajko Mitić Stadion. Referee: Szymon Marciniak.
Team pages: Serbia · Netherlands · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 30' Goal (penalty): Mexx Meerdink — 0–1 · Watch Mexx Meerdink's goal video (30')
- 46' Goal: Luka Jović (assist: Saša Lukić) — 1–1 · Watch Luka Jović's goal video (46')
- 69' Goal: Mexx Meerdink (assist: Guus Til) — 1–2 · Watch Mexx Meerdink's goal video (69')
Starting line-ups
Serbia (5-4-1)
Netherlands (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Serbia 18%, the draw 23%, Netherlands 59%. It finished Serbia 1–2 Netherlands.
Netherlands' rating gap outweighs Serbia's home ground — Netherlands are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Netherlands' 59%. The draw at 23% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Netherlands at 59%?
Netherlands sit 260 points higher on our strength rating — 1710 to 1970. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 5,898 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 19–25–56.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Serbia at 18%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 23.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 25,150.
What did we measure but not count?
Netherlands have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Serbia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Serbia have shed 78 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,524 such games vs 33.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Serbia vs Netherlands final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Mexx Meerdink's goal against Serbia (30').
- Watch Luka Jović's goal against Netherlands (46').
- Watch Mexx Meerdink's goal against Serbia (69').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Serbia 1–2 Netherlands. Explore more on the Serbia and Netherlands team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.