Bosnia & Herzegovina vs 02.10.26 18:451 – 1Full Time
Sweden — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Alajbegović strike rescues point for Bosnia & Herzegovina against Sweden
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden shared the points in a UEFA Nations League League B meeting at Stadion Bilino Polje, drawing 1-1 after Sweden had led for much of the second half. The result left Sweden top of League B Group 4 on seven points after three games, with Bosnia & Herzegovina second on five.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, with Sweden exerting control for long spells despite playing away from home. Viktor Gyökeres broke the deadlock in the 61st minute, finishing off an assist from Alexander Bernhardsson to put the visitors 1-0 ahead. Bosnia & Herzegovina responded in the 80th minute when Kerim-Sam Alajbegović levelled to make it 1-1, a scoreline that held until the final whistle.
Sweden had the better of the possession and chances, holding the ball for 56 per cent of the match and registering eight shots to Bosnia & Herzegovina's four, with four of those on target compared to the hosts' two. Bosnia & Herzegovina, by contrast, won more corners, four to none, despite seeing less of the ball throughout the contest.
Gyökeres scored the opening goal in the 61st minute and finished with a match rating of 8.2, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Sweden dominated the shot count with eight attempts to Bosnia & Herzegovina's four, reflecting their greater control for much of the match.
Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Bosnia & Herzegovina met Sweden in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 3). Kick-off was Friday, 2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadion Bilino Polje. Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskyi.
Team pages: Bosnia & Herzegovina · Sweden · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 61' Goal: Viktor Gyökeres (assist: Alexander Bernhardsson) — 0–1
- 80' Goal: Kerim-Sam Alajbegović — 1–1 · Watch Kerim-Sam Alajbegović's goal video (80')
Starting line-ups
Bosnia & Herzegovina (4-2-3-1)
Sweden (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bosnia & Herzegovina 34%, the draw 25%, Sweden 41%. It finished Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden.
Sweden's rating edge outweighs Bosnia & Herzegovina's home ground — Sweden are the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Sweden's 41%. The draw at 25% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Sweden at 41%?
Sweden sit 119 points higher on our strength rating — 1628 to 1746. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.0% of 13,727 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–26–42.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 25% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 34%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,787. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Bosnia & Herzegovina scored +0.66 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,823 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Bosnia & Herzegovina have gained 124 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,141 such games vs 40.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden. Explore more on the Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.