Netherlands vs 04.10.26 18:452 – 1Full Time
Serbia — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Netherlands edge Serbia to stay top of League A group
Netherlands beat Serbia 2-1 at the Philips Stadion in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, with the hosts moving to the summit of their group while Serbia remained without a point from four matches. The three goals came in a tense first half before the match settled into a more controlled second period.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Teun Koopmeiners put Netherlands ahead in the 31st minute, only for Mihajlo Cvetković to level four minutes later, finishing an Aleksa Terzić assist to make it 1-1 at the break. The decisive moment arrived in the 72nd minute when Joshua Zirkzee converted a Tijjani Reijnders assist to restore the hosts' lead, a margin they did not relinquish.
Netherlands dominated possession with 65 percent of the ball and produced 22 shots to Serbia's 12, seven of them on target compared to four for the visitors, underlining their control despite the narrow scoreline. Serbia picked up four yellow cards to the hosts' one as the away side struggled to contain the pressure applied throughout.
Koopmeiners opened the scoring in the 31st minute and was rated the top performer on the pitch with an 8.46 mark, while Zirkzee's late strike also earned him a place among the night's leading figures.
Netherlands' 22 shots to Serbia's 12 reflected how much more territory and opportunity the hosts created over the course of the match.
Netherlands beat Serbia 2–1 (half-time 1–1).
Netherlands met Serbia in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4). Kick-off was Sunday, 4 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Philips Stadion. Referee: Donatas Rumsas.
Team pages: Netherlands · Serbia · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 31' Goal: Teun Koopmeiners — 1–0 · Watch Teun Koopmeiners's goal video (31')
- 35' Goal: Mihajlo Cvetković (assist: Aleksa Terzić) — 1–1 · Watch Mihajlo Cvetković's goal video (35')
- 72' Goal: Joshua Zirkzee (assist: Tijjani Reijnders) — 2–1 · Watch Joshua Zirkzee's goal video (72')
Starting line-ups
Netherlands (4-3-3)
Serbia (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Netherlands 76%, the draw 15%, Serbia 9%. It finished Netherlands 2–1 Serbia.
Netherlands' rating gap decides it — Netherlands are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Netherlands' 76%. The draw at 15% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Netherlands at 76%?
Netherlands sit 271 points higher on our strength rating — 1967 to 1696. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.0% of 5,569 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–15–10.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 76% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Serbia at 9%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,099.
What did we measure but not count?
Netherlands have averaged 12 percentage points more possession than Serbia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Serbia have shed 90 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.0% of 9,541 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Netherlands vs Serbia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Teun Koopmeiners's goal against Serbia (31').
- Watch Mihajlo Cvetković's goal against Netherlands (35').
- Watch Joshua Zirkzee's goal against Serbia (72').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Netherlands 2–1 Serbia. Explore more on the Netherlands and Serbia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.