Bosnia & Herzegovina vs 05.10.26 18:451 – 0Full Time
Poland — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Bašić penalty gives Bosnia & Herzegovina narrow win over Poland
Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Poland 1-0 in a UEFA Nations League League B fixture at Stadion Bilino Polje, with the only goal arriving late in the contest. The result lifted the hosts to second in Group 4 on eight points from four matches, while Poland remained third with four points from the same number of games.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, with neither side able to find a breakthrough despite Poland holding the greater share of possession and territory. The deadlock was broken in the 84th minute when Ivan Bašić converted a penalty to put the home side 1-0 ahead, a lead Bosnia & Herzegovina held onto until the final whistle.
Despite controlling 56% of possession and producing 18 shots to Bosnia & Herzegovina's 9, Poland could not convert their territorial edge into a goal, managing only four shots on target compared to the hosts' single effort on frame. Referee Jeremie Pignard booked three players from each side but did not issue a red card in either direction.
Ivan Bašić scored the decisive penalty in the 84th minute and finished with the highest rating on the pitch at 7.78.
Poland managed eight corners to Bosnia & Herzegovina's two, underlining their territorial dominance despite leaving the match without a goal.
Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Bosnia & Herzegovina met Poland in the UEFA Nations League (League B - 4). Kick-off was Monday, 5 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadion Bilino Polje. Referee: Jeremie Pignard.
Team pages: Bosnia & Herzegovina · Poland · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 84' Goal (penalty): Ivan Bašić — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Bosnia & Herzegovina (4-4-2)
Poland (4-1-4-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bosnia & Herzegovina 30%, the draw 28%, Poland 42%. It finished Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Poland.
Poland's rating edge outweighs Bosnia & Herzegovina's home ground — Poland are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Poland the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Poland at 42%?
Poland sit 90 points higher on our strength rating — 1631 to 1721. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 40.0% of 13,741 such games. Poland hold 6 more possession points (51 to 45 in recent games) across a 90-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.5% of 8,544 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–30–39.
Why only 42%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 42% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 30%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,104.
What did we measure but not count?
Bosnia & Herzegovina scored +0.66 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,833 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Poland scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 Poland. Explore more on the Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.