OH Leuven vs Francs Borains — Belgian Cup: stats, lineups & analysis
Match Events
- 50′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- 61′OH Leuven, goal:1–0
- 63′OH Leuven, red card:
- 69′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 69′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 69′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 69′Francs Borains, substitution:off
- 81′Francs Borains, substitution:off
- 81′Francs Borains, substitution:off
- 85′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- 88′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- 88′Francs Borains, substitution:off
- 88′Francs Borains, substitution:off
- 88′OH Leuven, substitution:off
- 90+1′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- 90+1′OH Leuven, yellow card:
- 90+1′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- 90+1′Francs Borains, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 0
Key Stats
Match report
OH Leuven edge Francs Borains 1-0 in Belgian Cup despite late red card
OH Leuven beat Francs Borains 1-0 in the Round of 32 of the Belgian Cup, Ewoud Pletinckx scoring the only goal of the tie on 61 minutes to send the home side into the next round.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match was goalless at half-time, with neither side able to find a breakthrough in the opening 45 minutes. Pletinckx made it 1-0 shortly after the hour mark, giving Timmy Simons' side the lead they would keep until the final whistle.
The game then turned on a second moment inside three minutes. Birger Verstraete was sent off for OH Leuven on 63 minutes, leaving the hosts with ten men and a one-goal advantage to protect. From that point neither side scored, and Francs Borains, managed by Yves Vanderhaeghe, could not exploit the extra man to find an equaliser.
OH Leuven beat Francs Borains 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
OH Leuven met Francs Borains in the Belgian Cup (Round of 32). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Team pages: OH Leuven · Francs Borains · Belgian Cup
Key moments
- 61' Goal: Ewoud Pletinckx — 1–0
- 63' Red card: Birger Verstraete
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave OH Leuven 57%, the draw 27%, Francs Borains 16%. It finished OH Leuven 1–0 Francs Borains.
Strength rating gives OH Leuven a clear lead — OH Leuven sit 99 points higher on our strength rating, 1419 to 1320, and their recent finishing has fallen short of their chances, a cold streak of the kind that has tended to bounce back. The draw sits at 27%, up from a usual 25% because both sides' recent games average just 2.3 goals, trimmed slightly by that finishing streak.
Why OH Leuven at 57%?
OH Leuven sit 99 points higher on our strength rating — 1419 to 1320. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,358 such games. OH Leuven sit -0.32 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,529 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. The 300 most similar past games finished 49–28–23.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Francs Borains at 16%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Francs Borains win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.3 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,744. The goals environment adds 2.8 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Francs Borains arrive with 7 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; OH Leuven bring a 268-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the OH Leuven vs Francs Borains final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Belgian Cup fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the OH Leuven and Francs Borains team pages or the Belgian Cup page.