Match report
Bahia edge Mirassol 1-0 as Luciano Juba converts first-half penalty
Bahia beat Mirassol 1-0 at the Arena Fonte Nova in Brasileirão Série A on Matchday 30, a result that lifted them from seventh to fifth in the table. Luciano Juba's penalty in the 38th minute was the only goal of the evening, and it came in a half Bahia controlled from the outset.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The spot-kick put the hosts ahead and they led 1-0 at the interval. The second half brought no further scoring, with Mirassol unable to find an equaliser despite committing 16 fouls and collecting four yellow cards in a niggly contest. Bahia, who received one booking, saw out the closing stages without alarm.
The win took Bahia to 49 points from 30 games and ended a short run in which they had lost two of their previous five, both away from home. Mirassol stayed 15th on 33 points. Bahia host Flamengo on Sunday 18 October in the league, while Mirassol entertain Internacional on Friday 16 October.
David Duarte was the highest-rated performer on the pitch with 7.91, ahead of match-winner Luciano Juba, who scored the decisive penalty and was rated 7.77.
Bahia had 16 shots to 10, but only two of them were on target, the same number as Mirassol.
Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Bahia met Mirassol in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC at Arena Fonte Nova. Referee: Ramon Abatti.
Team pages: Bahia · Mirassol · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 38' Goal (penalty): Luciano Juba — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Bahia (4-3-3)
Mirassol (5-4-1)
- 22 Walter
- 6 Reinaldo
- 3 Willian Machado
- 2 Lucas Oliveira
- 32 Igor Formiga
- 10 Chico
- 25 Neto Moura
- 27 Denilson
- 77 Alesson
- 30 Bruno Santos
- 19 Gustavo Silva
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Bahia 54%, the draw 28%, Mirassol 18%. It finished Bahia 1–0 Mirassol.
Level sides, Bahia's control of the ball swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Bahia's control of the ball plus Brasileirão Série A home advantage give Bahia the lean. The draw at 28% is what level sides usually produce.
Why Bahia in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1538 to 1515. Sides this close won 45.8% of 13,710 home games (draw 27.7%, visitors 26.6%). Bahia hold 6 more possession points (55 to 49 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.2% of 5,137 games, vs 43.9% when styles were level. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,470 games vs 44.6% across all 101,096 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 54%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 28% and Mirassol at 18%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Mirassol win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,145. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Nicolás Acevedo, a star player, and Léo Vieira, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Out: João Victor, a star player, and José Aldo, a rotation player.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Bahia vs Mirassol final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Bahia 1–0 Mirassol. Explore more on the Bahia and Mirassol team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.