Chapecoense-sc vs Mon 12 Oct22:30 Scheduled
Atletico Paranaense — Brasileirão Série A: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Chapecoense-sc, bottom of the table, host fourth-placed Atletico Paranaense
Matchday 30 of the Brasileirão Série A brings Atletico Paranaense to the Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc, with Wilton Pereira Sampaio the appointed referee. The contrast in the table is stark: the hosts, managed by Rafael Lacerda, are 20th on 18 points from 28 games.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Atletico Paranaense, coached by Odair Hellmann, sit fourth on 50 points from 29 matches, a gap of 32 points between the sides. Their league season has been defined by goals at both ends, with three of their last five games ending in draws.
Chapecoense's recent run has been difficult: a 4-0 defeat at Vitoria on 7 October was their latest outing, and they have lost three of their last five. The only win in that spell was a 2-1 success at Corinthians on 6 September, while Atletico Paranaense's last five brought one win, three draws and one defeat.
Across their last 5 meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 0, Atletico Paranaense won 1, with 4 draws. The most recent meeting was Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc on 12 April 2026.
Team news as of 12 October: Chapecoense-sc have Fernando (suspended), Heitor, Max, Rafael Carvalheira, Robert Santos and 1 other listed as out. Atletico Paranaense have Gastón Benavídez and Dantas listed as out.
Chapecoense have lost three of their last five, whereas Atletico Paranaense have lost only once in theirs, drawing three, although all three of those draws and the defeat came in games where the visitors conceded at least two goals.
Chapecoense-sc meet Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 22:30 UTC at Arena Condá. Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio.
Team pages: Chapecoense-sc · Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A
Sirius · Why these numbers
Chapecoense-sc 28% · Draw 25% · Atletico Paranaense 47%
Strength gap puts Atletico Paranaense in front — Atletico Paranaense sit 239 points higher on our strength rating, 1559 to 1320, which is why we give them 47%, though strong home advantage across the Brasileirão Série A pulls some way back towards Chapecoense-sc. The draw sits at 25%, with high-scoring recent games for both sides nudging it down and the competition's usual draw rate lifting it.
Why Atletico Paranaense at 47%?
Atletico Paranaense sit 239 points higher on our strength rating — 1320 to 1559. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,682 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 23–26–51.
Why only 47%?
Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,894. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Gastón Benavídez, an important player, and Dantas, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Brasileirão Série A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.