Flamengo vs 11.10.26 20:301 – 0Full Time
Fluminense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Carrascal goal lifts Flamengo past Fluminense and extends lead at the top
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1-0 at the Estádio do Maracanã on Matchday 30 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that stretched their advantage at the top of the table. The only goal came after the interval, with the first half goalless and the hosts waiting until the 65th minute to break through.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Jorge Carrascal scored it, finishing from a Lucas Paquetá assist to make it 1-0. Flamengo had been the sharper side in terms of chances, having 17 shots to Fluminense's 12, even though Fluminense held more of the ball with 57 per cent possession to Flamengo's 43 per cent.
The win left Flamengo on 64 points after 30 games, up from 61 and still first, while Fluminense stayed third on 51 points. Flamengo are now unbeaten in 7 games. Both sides play again on Sunday 18 October, Flamengo away to Bahia and Fluminense at home to Santos, in the Brasileirão Série A.
Léo Ortiz carried the highest rating on the pitch at 7.86 for Flamengo, just ahead of Lucas Paquetá, who set up the winning goal and was rated 7.83.
Flamengo put 6 of their 17 shots on target against 4 from Fluminense's 12, which was enough to settle a tight contest.
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Flamengo met Fluminense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC at Estádio do Maracanã. Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein.
Team pages: Flamengo · Fluminense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 65' Goal: Jorge Carrascal (assist: Lucas Paquetá) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
Fluminense (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Flamengo 61%, the draw 26%, Fluminense 13%. It finished Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense.
Flamengo's rating edge carries it — Flamengo are the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage on top gives Flamengo a clear lead. The draw at 26% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Flamengo at 61%?
Flamengo sit 104 points higher on our strength rating — 1714 to 1609. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,339 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,470 games vs 44.6% across all 101,096 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–21–18.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Fluminense at 13%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.1 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,145. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Flamengo scored +0.47 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,825 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Jorginho and Giorgian de Arrascaeta, important players, and Ayrton Lucas, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Flamengo vs Fluminense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense. Explore more on the Flamengo and Fluminense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.