RB Bragantino vs Tue 13 Oct00:00 Scheduled
Cruzeiro — Brasileirão Série A: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
RB Bragantino host Cruzeiro in Brasileirão Série A matchday 30
RB Bragantino welcome Cruzeiro to the Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques for Regular Season - 30 of the Brasileirão Série A, with Savio Pereira Sampaio the appointed referee. The home side, managed by Mancini Vagner, sit tenth in the table on 37 points from 29 games.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Cruzeiro, coached by Artur Jorge, arrive fifth with 48 points from the same number of matches, a gap of 11 points to their hosts. Their last outing was a 2-0 home win over Sao Paulo on 8 October, following a 3-1 victory away at Vitoria on 20 September.
Bragantino have not won in their last five league fixtures: a 1-1 draw with Mirassol on 7 October came after a 1-0 defeat at Atletico-MG on 3 October, and they have lost three of those five games.
Across their last 5 meetings, RB Bragantino won 1, Cruzeiro won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Cruzeiro 2–1 RB Bragantino on 12 April 2026. RB Bragantino's latest win in this sample was RB Bragantino 1–0 Cruzeiro on 20 April 2025.
Team news as of 12 October: RB Bragantino have Alix and Davi Gomes listed as out, and Rodriguinho and José Hurtado as doubtful. Cruzeiro have Fabrício Bruno, Luis Sinisterra and Gabriel Pec listed as out, and Kenji and Neiser Villareal as doubtful.
Bragantino have drawn twice and lost three times in their last five games, while Cruzeiro have won three and lost two.
RB Bragantino meet Cruzeiro in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off is Tuesday, 13 October 2026, 00:00 UTC at Estadio Cicero de Souza Marques. Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio.
Team pages: RB Bragantino · Cruzeiro · Brasileirão Série A
Sirius · Why these numbers
RB Bragantino 35% · Draw 31% · Cruzeiro 34%
Cruzeiro's edge cancelled out by strong home advantage — Cruzeiro sit 110 points higher on our strength rating, 1606 to 1496, but RB Bragantino's home advantage, which runs strong for all home sides in the Brasileirão Série A, pulls the chances back to 35% against 34%. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and rises to 31% thanks to the league's usual draw rate and the two sides' typical recent scoring.
Why RB Bragantino at 35%?
Home ground, against the rating. Cruzeiro sit 110 points higher on our strength rating — 1496 to 1606. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,830 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 35%?
Because Cruzeiro are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 31% and Cruzeiro at 34%.
Why the draw at 31%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Cruzeiro scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,831 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Fabrício Bruno, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Brasileirão Série A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the RB Bragantino and Cruzeiro team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.