Match preview
Coritiba and Botafogo meet at Estádio Couto Pereira in Série A round 30
Coritiba host Botafogo at Estádio Couto Pereira in the 30th round of the Brasileirão Série A, with Matheus Delgado Candançan the match referee. Fernando Seabra's side sit ninth on 38 points from 29 games, while Tite's Botafogo are 13th on 35 points from the same number of matches, leaving three points between the clubs.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Coritiba arrive on a poor run. They lost 4-0 away to Fluminense on 9 October and 5-0 away to Vasco DA Gama on 19 September, conceding nine goals across those two defeats. In between came a 3-3 draw at home to Atletico Paranaense and a 2-1 home loss to Mirassol, with a 3-2 win at Remo on 31 August the only victory in their last five.
Botafogo have also lost their last two, beaten 2-1 at home by Vasco DA Gama on 7 October and 2-0 away at Mirassol on 19 September. Before that they beat Gremio 3-2 and drew 1-1 with RB Bragantino and 0-0 with Palmeiras, all at home, so they have lost only twice in their last five.
Across their last 5 meetings, Coritiba won 1, Botafogo won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba on 12 April 2026. Coritiba's latest win in this sample was Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo on 29 May 2022. Botafogo's latest win in this sample was Botafogo 4–1 Coritiba on 30 July 2023.
Team news as of 12 October: Coritiba have Bruno Melo (suspended), Tiago Cóser, Pedro Luccas, Lucas Ronier, Keno and 1 other listed as out, and 2 players as doubtful. Botafogo have Jordán Barrera and Kaio Pantaleão listed as out.
Coritiba have lost three of their last five and conceded 15 goals in the process, while Botafogo have lost two of theirs, with two draws and a win in between.
Coritiba meet Botafogo in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Estádio Couto Pereira. Referee: Matheus Delgado Candançan.
Team pages: Coritiba · Botafogo · Brasileirão Série A
Sirius · Why these numbers
Coritiba 38% · Draw 31% · Botafogo 31%
Home advantage edges Coritiba ahead of stronger Botafogo — We give Coritiba 38% because the usual home advantage, boosted by how strongly home sides perform in Brasileirão Série A, outweighs Botafogo sitting 76 points higher on our strength rating. The draw starts at 29% for a gap this size and rises to 31%, mainly because draws are common in Brasileirão Série A.
Why Coritiba at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. Botafogo sit 76 points higher on our strength rating — 1436 to 1512. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,380 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,475 games vs 44.6% across all 101,146 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 38%?
Because Botafogo are the stronger side on our strength rating. Botafogo sit -0.44 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,367 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why is the draw second, level with the Botafogo win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,163. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Botafogo are 3 games into a new manager (Tite), appointed 25 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Bruno Melo and Tiago Cóser, important players, Pedro Luccas, a rotation player, and Lucas Ronier, on a provisional rating. Doubtful: Jacy, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Coritiba vs Botafogo, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Brasileirão Série A fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Coritiba and Botafogo team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.