Botafogo vs Atletico-MG — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 14′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 19′Botafogo, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 47′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 55′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 55′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 64′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 68′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 75′Botafogo, yellow card:
- 76′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 76′Botafogo, substitution:off
- 77′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 85′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 89′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Botafogo
Atletico-MG
Match report
Botafogo edge Atletico-MG as Edenílson goal settles it
Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 1-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Matchday 34 of the Brasileirão Série A. Edenílson scored the only goal in the 19th minute, converting a chance created by Vitinho, and the hosts held that lead through to the final whistle.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The scoreline flattered neither side in terms of volume. Both finished with 13 shots and three on target, and the corner count was level at four apiece. Botafogo, though, had the better of the chances that mattered, with an expected goals figure of 1.48 against 0.33 for the visitors, despite Atletico-MG holding 68% of the possession to 32%.
The result lifted Botafogo from 14th to 11th, on 42 points, while Atletico-MG stayed seventh on 50. It was a fourth consecutive defeat for Atletico-MG, who had lost at Gremio in their previous outing. Botafogo had been beaten at Remo last time out. Atletico-MG host Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil on Saturday, 7 November, while Botafogo travel to Corinthians in the league.
Alexsander earned the highest rating of the match, 7.66, in a losing cause for Atletico-MG. Nahuel Ferraresi was the best-rated Botafogo player at 7.6.
Atletico-MG controlled 68% of the possession yet lost, with Botafogo's 32% enough to protect the early lead.
Botafogo beat Atletico-MG 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Botafogo met Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 34). Kick-off was Thursday, 5 November 2026, 00:30 UTC at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. Referee: Lucas Casagrande.
Team pages: Botafogo · Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A
Starting line-ups
Botafogo (3-5-2)
- 12 Gabriel Batista
- 21 Marçal (c)
- 34 G. Justino
- 5 Nahuel Ferraresi
- 29 Paulinho
- 6 Cristian Medina
- 75 Huguinho
- 88 Edenílson
- 2 Vitinho
- 9 Tiquinho Soares
- 90 Danilo
Atletico-MG (4-2-3-1)
- 22 Everson (c)
- 36 K. Pascini
- 3 Léo Duarte
- 40 Vitão
- 23 Angelo Preciado
- 39 Mamady Cisse
- 25 Tomás Pérez
- 92 Dudu
- 5 Alexsander
- 10 Gustavo Scarpa
- 29 Caua
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Botafogo 41%, the draw 32%, Atletico-MG 27%. It finished Botafogo 1–0 Atletico-MG.
Home advantage edges Botafogo ahead despite weaker rating — Atletico-MG sit 68 points higher on our strength rating, but Botafogo's usual home advantage, boosted because home sides in Brasileirão Série A do especially well, puts them slightly in front at 41%. The draw sits at 32%, up from the usual 29% for this strength gap, lifted by the competition's draw rate and both sides' typical-scoring recent games.
Why Botafogo at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. Atletico-MG sit 68 points higher on our strength rating — 1551 to 1483. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,149 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.3% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.3% of 4,511 games vs 44.6% across all 108,387 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 41%?
Because Atletico-MG are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 32% and Atletico-MG at 27%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Atletico-MG win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,386. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.3 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
With 5 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Botafogo are 3 points above the drop, Atletico-MG 4 points off the top four. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4609 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. Botafogo have shed 61 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,429 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Botafogo vs Atletico-MG final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Botafogo 1–0 Atletico-MG. Explore more on the Botafogo and Atletico-MG team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.