San Jose Earthquakes vs Sun 27 Sept02:30 Scheduled
Portland Timbers — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers — the facts
San Jose Earthquakes meet Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC at PayPal Park.
Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
San Jose Earthquakes 52% · Draw 24% · Portland Timbers 24%
Level sides, home ground swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage gives San Jose Earthquakes the lean. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why San Jose Earthquakes in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1540 to 1538. Sides this close won 45.6% of 14,717 home games (draw 26.5%, visitors 27.9%). Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 52%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 24% and Portland Timbers at 24%.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Portland Timbers are 1 game into a new manager (Jack Cassidy), appointed 7 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Last five: San Jose Earthquakes D-D-W-W-D, Portland Timbers L-W-D-L-L — San Jose Earthquakes are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.6% of 2215 games when clearly hotter and 42.7% of 4044 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC at PayPal Park, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers?
San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers have met 10 times — 3 wins for San Jose Earthquakes, 5 wins for Portland Timbers and 2 draws.