Philadelphia Union vs Sat 26 Sept23:30 Scheduled
Orlando City SC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC — the facts
Philadelphia Union meet Orlando City SC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Subaru Park.
Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Philadelphia Union 57% · Draw 24% · Orlando City SC 19%
A slight rating edge to Philadelphia Union, little else — Philadelphia Union are a shade stronger on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage on top gives Philadelphia Union a clear lead. The draw at 24% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Philadelphia Union at 57%?
Philadelphia Union sit 63 points higher on our strength rating — 1653 to 1590. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge at home won 50.4% of 10,499 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Orlando City SC at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.8 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Philadelphia Union have gained 84 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,433 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 9 home Major League Soccer games: 5 wins and 4 draws. The run began on 18 April 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 21 March 2026 — Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago Fire. Latest home league result: 9 September 2026 — Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC Cincinnati. Across 13,654 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.3%, compared with 54.5% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Subaru Park, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC?
Philadelphia Union and Orlando City SC have met 10 times — 3 wins for Philadelphia Union, 5 wins for Orlando City SC and 2 draws.