Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 16′Nashville SC, goal:1–0assist
- 43′Nashville SC, goal:2–0assist
- Half-time2 – 0
- 46′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 63′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 71′Nashville SC, substitution:Shak Mohammedoff
- 73′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 73′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- 78′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 81′Nashville SC, yellow card:
- 86′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 86′Nashville SC, substitution:off
- 87′Toronto FC, substitution:off
- Full-time2 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Player Ratings
Nashville SC
Toronto FC
Match report
Mukhtar double sends Nashville SC past Toronto FC
Nashville SC beat Toronto FC 2-0 at Geodis Park in matchday 27 of Major League Soccer's Regular Season, a result that kept the leaders top of the table while leaving their visitors mired near the bottom. Both goals came inside the first half, settling the contest long before half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Hany Mukhtar opened the scoring in the 16th minute, finishing from a Cristian Espinoza assist, before doubling his tally on 43 minutes with Samuel Surridge supplying the pass. Nashville led 2-0 at the break and controlled affairs throughout, with Toronto unable to find a way back into the game across the second half.
Nashville dominated possession with 62 percent of the ball and produced 23 shots to Toronto's 11, eight of which were on target compared to just three for the visitors. The home side also won nine corners against three, underlining how thoroughly they controlled proceedings from start to finish.
Hany Mukhtar scored both of Nashville's goals and finished with a rating of 8.79, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Nashville's 62 percent share of possession reflected their control over a match they led from the 16th minute onward.
Nashville SC beat Toronto FC 2–0 (half-time 2–0).
Nashville SC met Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off was Sunday, 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC at Geodis Park. Referee: Ramy Touchan. Attendance: 26,720.
Team pages: Nashville SC · Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 16' Goal: Hany Mukhtar (assist: Cristian Espinoza) — 1–0
- 43' Goal: Hany Mukhtar (assist: Sam Surridge) — 2–0
Starting line-ups
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)
Toronto FC (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Nashville SC 72%, the draw 16%, Toronto FC 12%. It finished Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FC.
Nashville SC's rating gap decides it — Nashville SC are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Nashville SC. The draw at 16% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Nashville SC at 72%?
Nashville SC sit 198 points higher on our strength rating — 1634 to 1436. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.9% of 6,589 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.1%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,190 games vs 44.7% across all 100,616 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–17–17.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 72% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 16% and Toronto FC at 12%.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.0% of 16,936. The goals environment takes 1.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Toronto FC in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nashville SC are unbeaten in their 13 home Major League Soccer games this season: 12 wins and 1 draw. Season's home results covered: 22 February 2026 to 20 September 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 20 September 2026 — Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago Fire. Across 4,881 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.1%, compared with 56.2% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Nashville SC vs Toronto FC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FC. Explore more on the Nashville SC and Toronto FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.