FC Dallas vs Sun 27 Sept00:30 Scheduled
Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC — the facts
FC Dallas meet Los Angeles FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC at Toyota Stadium.
Team pages: FC Dallas · Los Angeles FC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
FC Dallas 41% · Draw 28% · Los Angeles FC 31%
Home ground outweighs Los Angeles FC's rating edge — Los Angeles FC are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Major League Soccer home advantage plus Los Angeles FC's hot finishing due to cool give FC Dallas the lean. The draw at 28% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why FC Dallas at 41%?
Home ground, against the rating. Los Angeles FC sit 63 points higher on our strength rating — 1617 to 1679. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,679 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Los Angeles FC scored +0.41 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 28.8% of 1,519 games, vs 29.2% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 41%?
Because Los Angeles FC are the stronger side on our strength rating. Los Angeles FC hold 11 more possession points (50 to 39 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 40.3% across 5,603 games, from 43.9% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179. The cool-off factor takes 1.4 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
FC Dallas are missing 2 regular starters — Petar Musa, Osaze Urhoghide — about 16% of their usual starting-XI weight. Our measured receipt covers one-sided absences only, and the picture here isn't one-sided — both squads are short. Los Angeles FC are missing 2 regular starters — Eddie Segura, Ryan Porteous — about 15% of their usual starting-XI weight. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC at Toyota Stadium, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC?
FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC have met 10 times — 3 wins for FC Dallas, 6 wins for Los Angeles FC and 1 draw.