Nashville SC vs Sun 27 Sept00:30 Scheduled
Toronto FC — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Nashville SC vs Toronto FC — the facts
Nashville SC meet Toronto FC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC at Geodis Park.
Team pages: Nashville SC · Toronto FC · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
Nashville SC 78% · Draw 15% · Toronto FC 7%
Nashville SC's rating gap decides it — Nashville SC are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and Major League Soccer home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Nashville SC. The draw at 15% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Nashville SC at 78%?
Nashville SC sit 284 points higher on our strength rating — 1734 to 1449. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 6,016 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 74–15–11.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 78% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and Toronto FC at 7%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 15.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,318. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Nashville SC have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Toronto FC in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Nashville SC are unbeaten in their 13 home Major League Soccer games this season: 12 wins and 1 draw. Season's home results covered: 22 February 2026 to 20 September 2026 (UTC dates). Latest home result: 20 September 2026 — Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago Fire. Across 4,884 historical matches involving hosts unbeaten at home that season after at least five home games, those hosts won 59.2%, compared with 56.1% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Nashville SC vs Toronto FC, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Nashville SC and Toronto FC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does Nashville SC vs Toronto FC kick off?
Kick-off is Sunday, 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC at Geodis Park, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch Nashville SC vs Toronto FC goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.
›What is the head-to-head record between Nashville SC and Toronto FC?
Nashville SC and Toronto FC have met 10 times — 4 wins for Nashville SC, 3 wins for Toronto FC and 3 draws.