Real Salt Lake vs 15.10.26 01:301 – 1Full Time
San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Real Salt Lake denied by Jasinski's late equaliser against San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake were pegged back by a goal deep into stoppage time as they drew 1-1 with San Jose Earthquakes at Rio Tinto Stadium in Major League Soccer on Matchday 29. Jack Jasinski struck in the 90+4 minute to level the contest and leave the hosts with a point they will feel was less than they deserved.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The match stayed goalless through a first half that ended 0-0, with neither side able to break through. Real Salt Lake finally found the opening in the 79th minute, when Luc De Fougerolles converted from a Juan Sanabria assist to make it 1-0.
The hosts looked set to hold on until Jasinski's intervention in the closing moments. The draw lifted Real Salt Lake from 24th to 20th in the table, on 33 points, while San Jose stayed eighth with 47 and extended their unbeaten run to eight games.
Real Salt Lake travel to face Sporting Kansas City in Major League Soccer next, while San Jose host Nashville SC in the same competition.
Luc De Fougerolles scored the opening goal in the 79th minute and carried the top rating on the pitch at 8.46. Juan Sanabria supplied the pass for that goal.
Real Salt Lake had 8 shots on target to 2 for San Jose, a gap that made the late concession all the more costly.
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1 (half-time 0–0).
Real Salt Lake met San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 01:30 UTC at Rio Tinto Stadium. Referee: Sergii Demianchuk.
Team pages: Real Salt Lake · San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 79' Goal: Luc De Fougerolles (assist: Juan Sanabria) — 1–0
- 90+4' Goal: Jack Jasinski — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Real Salt Lake (5-4-1)
San Jose Earthquakes (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Real Salt Lake 35%, the draw 30%, San Jose Earthquakes 35%. It finished Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Home advantage cancels out San Jose's stronger rating — Our strength rating has San Jose Earthquakes 59 points higher, 1483 to 1424, but Real Salt Lake's home advantage, which runs strong for all home sides in Major League Soccer, pulls things back to 35% each. The draw sits at 30%, starting from the usual 29% for a gap this size and nudged up by San Jose's control of the ball.
Why are Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes level?
Home ground, against the rating. San Jose Earthquakes sit 59 points higher on our strength rating — 1483 to 1424. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,384 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,222 games vs 44.6% across all 101,177 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 35% each?
Because San Jose Earthquakes are the stronger side on our strength rating. San Jose Earthquakes sit -0.42 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,367 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. San Jose Earthquakes hold 6 more possession points (52 to 46 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,477 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 30%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,172. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Real Salt Lake sit -0.34 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Real Salt Lake have shed 76 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,596 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes. Explore more on the Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes team pages or the Major League Soccer page.