Toronto FC vs 14.10.26 23:303 – 3Full Time
Orlando City SC — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Toronto FC rescue a 3-3 draw with Orlando City SC after late comeback
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC shared six goals in a 3-3 draw at BMO Field in Major League Soccer on Matchday 29. Matheus Pereira's goal in the 89th minute pulled the hosts level after they had trailed in the closing stages, and the point lifted them from 23rd to 21st in the table.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Lewis Morgan put Toronto ahead in the 26th minute, finishing from a Theodor Corbeanu assist. Orlando levelled in first-half stoppage time, Martín Ojeda scoring from the penalty spot in the 45+1 minute. Corbeanu then restored the home side's lead four minutes after the interval, with Dániel Sallói providing the pass.
Orlando turned the contest around late on. Antoine Griezmann equalised in the 76th minute from an Iago assist, and Daryl Dike put the visitors 3-2 ahead in the 83rd, set up by Iván Angulo. Toronto, who had gone into the game having lost three of their last five, needed only six minutes to respond through Pereira.
Both sides now return to action on Saturday 17 October in Major League Soccer: Toronto travel to face New York Red Bulls, while Orlando City SC host DC United.
Antoine Griezmann scored Orlando's equaliser in the 76th minute after an Iago assist and earned the match's highest rating, 7.84. Theodor Corbeanu, rated 7.64, scored once and set up Morgan's opener for Toronto.
Orlando City SC held 63% of the possession, yet Toronto FC managed more shots, 16 to 14.
Toronto FC and Orlando City SC drew 3–3 (half-time 1–1).
Toronto FC met Orlando City SC in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 29). Kick-off was Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 23:30 UTC at BMO Field. Referee: A. Villarreal.
Team pages: Toronto FC · Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 26' Goal: Lewis Morgan (assist: Theodor Corbeanu) — 1–0
- 45+1' Goal (penalty): Martín Ojeda — 1–1
- 49' Goal: Theodor Corbeanu (assist: Dániel Sallói) — 2–1
- 76' Goal: Antoine Griezmann (assist: Iago) — 2–2
- 83' Goal: Daryl Dike (assist: Iván Angulo) — 2–3
- 89' Goal: Matheus Pereira — 3–3
Starting line-ups
Toronto FC (4-4-2)
Orlando City SC (4-4-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Toronto FC 44%, the draw 24%, Orlando City SC 32%. It finished Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC.
Home advantage outweighs Orlando's stronger rating — Orlando City SC sit 62 points higher on our strength rating, but Toronto FC's home advantage, which runs strong in Major League Soccer, gives them a slight lean at 44% to 32%. The draw drops to 24% from a usual 29%, lowered by both sides' high-scoring recent games and their finishing streaks.
Why Toronto FC at 44%?
Home ground, against the rating. Orlando City SC sit 62 points higher on our strength rating — 1494 to 1432. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.5% of 10,384 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,222 games vs 44.6% across all 101,177 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Orlando City SC scored +0.40 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.3% of 1,461 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 44%?
Because Orlando City SC are the stronger side on our strength rating. Orlando City SC hold 14 more possession points (55 to 41 in recent games) across a 62-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,632 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. Toronto FC scored +0.74 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.6% of 1,479 games, vs 27.7% against normal finishing.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,905. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Orlando City SC are 2 games into a new manager (M. Perelman), appointed 18 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Out: Walker Zimmerman, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC. Explore more on the Toronto FC and Orlando City SC team pages or the Major League Soccer page.