Portland Timbers vs Charlotte — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsMajor League SoccerYouTubeMatch Events
- 3′Charlotte, goal:0–1assist
- 11′Portland Timbers, goal:1–1assist
- 17′Portland Timbers, yellow card:
- 40′Portland Timbers, goal:2–1assist
- 45′Charlotte, yellow card:
- Half-time2 – 1
- 62′Charlotte, substitution:off
- 64′Portland Timbers, substitution:off
- 64′Portland Timbers, substitution:off
- 69′Charlotte, goal:2–2assist
- 70′Charlotte, substitution:off
- 70′Charlotte, substitution:off
- 83′Portland Timbers, substitution:off
- 83′Portland Timbers, substitution:off
- 85′Charlotte, substitution:off
- 90+6′Portland Timbers, goal:3–2assist
- Full-time3 – 2
Lineups
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Portland Timbers
Charlotte
Match report
Portland Timbers snatch late win over Charlotte
Portland Timbers won 3-2 against Charlotte in Major League Soccer on Matchday 31 at Providence Park, Alexander Aravena scoring in the 90+6 minute to settle a five-goal contest. The result ended a run of seven games without a win for the home side.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Charlotte took the lead in the third minute when Pep Biel scored from an Ashley Westwood assist. Portland were level by the 11th minute, Ariel Lassiter converting a cross from E. Izoita, and the same pair combined again in the 40th minute to put the Timbers 2-1 ahead at half-time.
Charlotte levelled in the 69th minute through I. Toklomati, who scored from a Luca de la Torre assist, and the game appeared to be heading for a draw. Portland, who had 26 shots to Charlotte's 6, found a winner deep into stoppage time when Aravena scored from an Ian Smith assist.
The win lifted Portland from 24th to 21st in the table, on 37 points, while Charlotte stayed tenth on 47. Charlotte next host CF Montreal in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, while Portland travel to St. Louis City.
Ariel Lassiter scored twice, in the 11th and 40th minutes, both from E. Izoita crosses, and was the highest-rated player in the match at 8.88. Charlotte goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina earned an 8.51 rating despite conceding three.
Portland had 26 shots to Charlotte's 6, 12 of them on target to Charlotte's 3.
Portland Timbers beat Charlotte 3–2 (half-time 2–1).
Portland Timbers met Charlotte in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 31). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 02:30 UTC at Providence Park. Referee: Rosendo Mendoza. Attendance: 23,323.
Team pages: Portland Timbers · Charlotte · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 3' Goal: Pep Biel (assist: Ashley Westwood) — 0–1
- 11' Goal: Ariel Lassiter (assist: E. Izoita) — 1–1
- 40' Goal: Ariel Lassiter (assist: E. Izoita) — 2–1
- 69' Goal: I. Toklomati (assist: Luca de la Torre) — 2–2
- 90+6' Goal: Alexander Aravena (assist: Cole Bassett) — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Portland Timbers (4-3-3)
Charlotte (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Portland Timbers 38%, the draw 25%, Charlotte 37%. It finished Portland Timbers 3–2 Charlotte.
Strong home edge offsets Charlotte's higher rating — Charlotte sit 89 points higher on our strength rating, but Portland Timbers get the usual home advantage and Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm, so we give Portland Timbers 38% to Charlotte's 37%. The draw starts at about 28% for a gap this size, then drops to 25% because both teams' recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Portland Timbers at 38%?
Home ground, against the rating. Charlotte sit 89 points higher on our strength rating — 1525 to 1436. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,788 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.1% of 5,253 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 38%?
Because Charlotte are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 25% and Charlotte at 37%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Portland Timbers have shed 60 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.0% of 10,359 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Brandon Bye, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Portland Timbers vs Charlotte final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Portland Timbers 3–2 Charlotte. Explore more on the Portland Timbers and Charlotte team pages or the Major League Soccer page.