Real Madrid vs 10.10.26 19:001 – 0Full Time
Villarreal — La Liga: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Real Madrid hold on for 1-0 win over Villarreal despite late red card
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1-0 at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in La Liga on Matchday 8, a result that left the hosts third in the table on 18 points from eight games. Villarreal, managed by Iñigo Pérez, remained tenth with eight points.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The first half finished goalless, and the deadlock held until the 62nd minute. Federico Valverde supplied the pass and Yan Diomande finished to put José Mourinho's side in front, the only goal of the match.
Madrid then had to see the game out with ten men. Vinícius Júnior was sent off in the 72nd minute, and Villarreal had the better of the ball thereafter, but the hosts protected their lead through to the final whistle.
Villarreal finished with 54 per cent of possession and 15 shots to 11, though each side managed four on target. Madrid won the corner count by nine to three, while five yellow cards and the red left them with the worse disciplinary record.
Alexander Freeman earned the highest rating on the pitch, 7.86, despite finishing on the losing side. Valverde, rated 7.67, provided the assist for Diomande's winner.
Villarreal took 15 shots to Real Madrid's 11 but could not find a way past the hosts, who won with the match's only goal.
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Real Madrid met Villarreal in the La Liga (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos. Attendance: 75,242.
Team pages: Real Madrid · Villarreal · La Liga
Key moments
- 62' Goal: Yan Diomande (assist: Federico Valverde) — 1–0 · Watch Yan Diomande's goal video (62')
- 72' Red card: Vinícius Júnior
Starting line-ups
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1)
Villarreal (5-3-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Real Madrid 74%, the draw 13%, Villarreal 13%. It finished Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal.
Real Madrid's rating gap decides it — Real Madrid are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and La Liga home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Real Madrid. The draw at 13% is down from the usual 14.5% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Real Madrid at 74%?
Real Madrid sit 196 points higher on our strength rating — 1933 to 1737. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.7% of 6,563 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,150 games vs 44.6% across all 101,016 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–13–15.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 74% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 13% and Villarreal at 13%.
Why is the draw only 13%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 14.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,847. The goals environment takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 9 home La Liga games: 8 wins and 1 draw. The run began on 14 March 2026. Last recorded home league defeat: 2 March 2026 — Real Madrid 0–1 Getafe. Latest home league result: 12 September 2026 — Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano. Across 13,679 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Out: Dean Huijsen, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Real Madrid vs Villarreal final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this La Liga fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal. Explore more on the Real Madrid and Villarreal team pages or the La Liga page.