Villarreal vs Getafe — La Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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VillarrealGetafeVillarrealGetafeMatch preview
Villarreal host Getafe on matchday 12 after heavy defeat to Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal welcome Getafe to Estadio de la Ceramica on La Liga matchday 12, with the two sides level on 12 points after 11 games each. Villarreal sit ninth, four places above Getafe in 13th, with only goal difference or other tie-breakers separating them in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Iñigo Pérez's side arrive on the back of consecutive defeats, a 1-0 loss to Espanyol followed by a 6-0 home defeat to Paris Saint Germain. Before that they had won at Valencia and at Manacor, scoring seven goals across those two games.
Jose Bordalas Jimenez's Getafe have also lost their latest game, 1-0 at home to Brighton, which followed a 3-1 win over Sevilla. Of their last five away games, Getafe have won one, drawn one and lost three, scoring four goals and conceding 11.
Across their last 5 meetings, Villarreal won 2, Getafe won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Getafe 2–1 Villarreal on 14 February 2026. Villarreal's latest win in this sample was Villarreal 2–0 Getafe on 6 December 2025.
Both sides have won two and lost three of their last five games, Villarreal scoring 10 and conceding 12 while Getafe scored eight and conceded 13.
Both sides have struggled in front of goal in their venue-specific runs, Villarreal failing to score in three of their last five home games and Getafe in three of their last five away games.
Villarreal meet Getafe in the La Liga (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at Estadio de la Cerámica.
Team pages: Villarreal · Getafe · La Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Villarreal 63% · Draw 21% · Getafe 16%
Villarreal's stronger rating drives a clear lead — We give Villarreal 63% mainly because our strength rating has them 131 points higher, and their recent finishing below the quality of their chances points to a likely bounce back. The draw starts at 25% for a gap this size but falls to 21%, as both sides' recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Villarreal at 63%?
Villarreal sit 131 points higher on our strength rating — 1724 to 1592. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. Villarreal sit -0.35 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,189 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 62–19–19.
Why only 63%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 63% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Getafe at 16%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Villarreal have averaged 16 percentage points more possession than Getafe in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Getafe have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Villarreal vs Getafe, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Villarreal and Getafe team pages or the La Liga page.