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SevillaAlavesSevillaAlavesMatch preview
Sevilla host Alaves in La Liga with the visitors seven games without a win
Sevilla welcome Alaves on Matchday 12 of La Liga, with Luis García's side sixth in the table on 17 points from 11 games. Quique Sánchez Flores's visitors are 11th on 12 points, five places and five points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sevilla arrive after a 3-1 defeat at Getafe, which followed a 3-0 win at Hortaleza and a 2-0 home victory over Osasuna. Across their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring ten goals and conceding ten.
Alaves have gone seven games without a win, and in their last five they have drawn two and lost three, scoring four and conceding 11. Their most recent outing was a 6-1 defeat at Barcelona, and Sevilla's home record of three wins in their last five home games stands against that run.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 1, Alaves won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Sevilla 1–1 Alaves on 14 February 2026. Sevilla's latest win in this sample was Alaves 1–2 Sevilla on 20 September 2025. Alaves's latest win in this sample was Alaves 1–0 Sevilla on 17 December 2025.
Team news as of 6 November: Sevilla have Peque Fernández, Manu Bueno (suspended) and Marcão listed as out, and M. Sierra and Isaac Romero as doubtful. Alaves have Mikel Rodríguez listed as out.
Sevilla have won two of their last five and scored ten goals, while Alaves have lost three and drawn two of theirs, with four goals scored and 11 conceded.
Alaves have drawn two and lost three of their last five away games, scoring four goals and conceding 11, while Sevilla have won three of their last five at home.
Sevilla meet Alaves in the La Liga (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Friday, 6 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Referee: Lluís Bestard Servera.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sevilla 48% · Draw 26% · Alaves 26%
Home advantage gives Sevilla a slight lean — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, 1649 to 1644, so Sevilla's usual home advantage puts them in front, helped by home sides running strong in La Liga generally. The draw starts at 28%, the usual rate between sides this level, and dips slightly to 26% because both teams' recent games average 3.0 goals and a finishing streak trims it too.
Why Sevilla in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1649 to 1644. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%). La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,189 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 48%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 26% and Alaves at 26%.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Sevilla scored +0.62 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.5% of 1,690 games, vs 27.9% against normal finishing. Sevilla have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sevilla vs Alaves, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sevilla and Alaves team pages or the La Liga page.