Malaga vs Racing Santander — La Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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MalagaRacing SantanderMalagaRacing SantanderMatch preview
Malaga host Racing Santander in La Liga with bottom-placed hosts seeking a first home win
Malaga welcome Racing Santander to Estadio La Rosaleda on matchday 12 of La Liga with the hosts 20th in the table on five points from 11 games. Racing Santander sit 16th on 11 points from the same number of matches, four places and six points above their opponents.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Malaga arrive after a 2-1 defeat away to Real Betis on 31 October. Across their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two, scoring eight and conceding nine. A 3-0 win at Alcazar on 27 October is the one victory in that spell, set against a 5-2 home loss to Real Sociedad earlier in the month.
Racing Santander come in on the back of a 3-0 home defeat to Real Madrid on 1 November, which followed away and home wins over Ribadesella CF and Espanyol. They have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, failing to score in two of them. Malaga, who drew 1-1 with Espanyol at home on 9 October, are winless in their last five home games, with three draws and two defeats.
Across their last 5 meetings, Malaga won 0, Racing Santander won 3, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander on 24 May 2026. Racing Santander's latest win in this sample was Racing Santander 3–0 Malaga on 5 October 2025.
Racing Santander have won two of their last five and Malaga one, though both come off defeats, Malaga at Real Betis and Racing Santander at home to Real Madrid.
Racing Santander have lost four of their last five away games and conceded 17 goals in them, while Malaga have not won in their last five at home.
Malaga meet Racing Santander in the La Liga (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC at La Rosaleda.
Team pages: Malaga · Racing Santander · La Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Malaga 46% · Draw 24% · Racing Santander 30%
Home advantage gives Malaga a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1566 to 1581 with Racing Santander fractionally ahead, Malaga's usual home advantage and a strong home edge across La Liga give them 46%. The draw starts at 27% for sides this level and drops to 24% because both teams' own recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Malaga in front?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1566 to 1581. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,189 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 24% and Racing Santander at 30%.
Why the draw at 24%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Racing Santander won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Malaga. The record is 3 wins for Racing Santander, 3 draws and 0 wins for Malaga. These were 6 Segunda División games played at both grounds between 1 October 2022 and 24 May 2026. Racing Santander are unbeaten in the last 6 meetings between the sides (3 wins, 3 draws), a run going back to October 2022. Latest meeting: 24 May 2026 — Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%. Racing Santander played 3 competitive matches between 24 October and 1 November 2026 (UTC dates). Malaga played 2 matches in the same 14-day window before kickoff. The busier schedule is worth watching.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Malaga vs Racing Santander, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Malaga and Racing Santander team pages or the La Liga page.