Valencia vs Real Madrid — La Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Valencia host Real Madrid at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga matchday 12
Valencia welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mestalla on matchday 12 of La Liga, with Javier Aguirre's side 19th on 9 points from 11 games. José Mourinho's visitors are third on 27 points, 16 places and 18 points higher in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Valencia's last five games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with six goals scored and seven conceded. The win came away at Elche, but at Mestalla they have lost four of their last five home games, drawing the other, and failed to score in three of them.
Real Madrid arrive having won their last 7 games. In their last five they have scored 16 goals and conceded five, with a 3-2 win at AEK Athens their latest result. Both sides have faced Racing Santander recently: Valencia drew 2-2 away, while Madrid won 3-0 there.
Across their last 5 meetings, Valencia won 1, Real Madrid won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid on 8 February 2026. Valencia's latest win in this sample was Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia on 5 April 2025.
Valencia have won one of their last five, while Real Madrid have won all five, scoring 16 goals and conceding five.
Valencia have failed to score in three of their last five home games, while Real Madrid have won four of their last five away.
Valencia meet Real Madrid in the La Liga (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at Camp de Mestalla.
Team pages: Valencia · Real Madrid · La Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Valencia 19% · Draw 18% · Real Madrid 63%
Real Madrid's strength gap outweighs Valencia's home edge — We give Real Madrid 63% mainly because they sit 329 points higher on our strength rating, 1987 to 1659, though Valencia gain a little from home advantage running strong across La Liga. The draw starts at 20%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 18% because both sides' own recent games average 3.4 goals.
Why Real Madrid at 63%?
Real Madrid sit 329 points higher on our strength rating — 1987 to 1659. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 17–21–62.
Why only 63%?
La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,189 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 20.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.7 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Real Madrid have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Valencia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Valencia are 4 games into a new manager (J. Aguirre), appointed 27 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Valencia vs Real Madrid, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Valencia and Real Madrid team pages or the La Liga page.