Osasuna vs Athletic Club — La Liga: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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OsasunaAthletic ClubOsasunaAthletic ClubMatch preview
Osasuna host in-form Athletic Club at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga
Osasuna welcome Athletic Club to Estadio El Sadar on Matchday 12 of La Liga, with Arrasate's side 15th in the table on 11 points from 11 games. Edin Terzić's visitors sit seventh on 15 points from 10 games, four points and eight places better off than their hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Osasuna arrive having lost three of their last five, most recently 2-1 away to Deportivo La Coruna. In that run they scored 11 and conceded nine, with two clean sheets, and a 5-2 defeat at Real Betis stands as the heaviest loss in the sequence.
Athletic Club have won their last three games, beating Getafe 4-0, Prat 6-1 away and Real Sociedad 2-1 at home, and have scored 13 goals in their last five. Osasuna, meanwhile, have kept three clean sheets in their last five home games, drawing two and winning two of the other three.
Across their last 5 meetings, Osasuna won 1, Athletic Club won 2, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna on 21 April 2026. Osasuna's latest win in this sample was Athletic Club 2–3 Osasuna on 16 January 2025.
Athletic Club have won three of their last five and scored 13 goals, while Osasuna have won two of their last five and lost three.
Osasuna's three clean sheets in their last five home games meet an Athletic attack that has scored 13 times in its last five outings.
Osasuna meet Athletic Club in the La Liga (Regular Season - 12). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at Estadio El Sadar.
Team pages: Osasuna · Athletic Club · La Liga
Sirius · Why these numbers
Osasuna 39% · Draw 27% · Athletic Club 34%
Home advantage edges Osasuna past stronger Athletic — Athletic Club sit 75 points higher on our strength rating, 1684 to 1609, but Osasuna's usual home advantage, boosted because home sides in La Liga run strong, gives them a slight lean at 39% to 34%. The draw starts at 29%, the usual rate for this strength gap, and drops to 27% because both sides' recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Osasuna at 39%?
Home ground, against the rating. Athletic Club sit 75 points higher on our strength rating — 1684 to 1609. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games. La Liga home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (28.3% vs 30.0%). La Liga homes won 46.6% of 6,189 games vs 44.6% across all 108,444 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 39%?
Because Athletic Club are the stronger side on our strength rating. Athletic Club hold 8 more possession points (54 to 46 in recent games) across a 75-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Osasuna sit -0.44 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Athletic Club have gained 71 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Osasuna vs Athletic Club, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this La Liga fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Osasuna and Athletic Club team pages or the La Liga page.