HighlightsAFC AjaxYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow9 clips- 10′Ajax, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- 16′Groningen, VAR review:Penalty cancelled
- 27′Ajax, goal:0–1
- 37′Ajax, goal:0–2
- 40′Groningen, yellow card:Foul
- 45+2′Ajax, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 2
- 49′Groningen, goal:1–2
- 56′Ajax, goal disallowed:Goal cancelled
- 60′Ajax, goal:1–3assist
- 67′Groningen, substitution:off
- 69′Ajax, goal:1–4
- 74′Ajax, substitution:off
- 74′Ajax, substitution:off
- 75′Ajax, goal:1–5assist
- 82′Ajax, substitution:off
- 82′Ajax, substitution:off
- 82′Groningen, substitution:off
- 82′Groningen, substitution:off
- 83′Groningen, substitution:off
- 83′Groningen, substitution:off
- 83′Groningen, goal:2–5
- 90′Ajax, yellow card:Foul
- 90+1′Groningen, missed penalty:Missed penalty
- Full-time2 – 5
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Groningen
Ajax
Match report
Ajax overpower Groningen 5-2 with Mokio and Brandt both scoring twice
Ajax won 5-2 away to Groningen at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion in Eredivisie Matchday 9, a seven-goal contest that lifted them from fifth to fourth in the table. The result ended a run of 3 games without a win for Míchel's side.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Julian Brandt opened the scoring in the 27th minute, and Aaron Bouwman doubled the lead in the 37th to send Ajax in 2-0 up at the break. Brynjólfur Willumsson pulled one back four minutes after the restart, but Groningen could not build on it.
Ajax then took control. Brandt added his second in the 60th minute from an Owen Wijndal assist, before Jorthy Mokio struck in the 69th and again in the 75th, the second set up by Davy Klaassen. Thom van Bergen scored in the 83rd minute for the hosts, but it was only a consolation.
Groningen, who dropped to seventh, travel to NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October. Ajax host Atalanta in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 22 October.
Jorthy Mokio scored twice and was the highest-rated player on the pitch with 8.92, with Klaassen providing the pass for his second goal. Brandt matched his two goals and also got his name on the scoresheet with a goal set up by Wijndal.
Ajax put 11 of their 15 shots on target, against five from 16 for Groningen, who had the greater share of possession at 57 per cent.
Ajax won 5–2 away against Groningen (half-time 0–2).
Groningen met Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off was Sunday, 18 October 2026, 14:45 UTC at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion. Referee: Dennis Higler.
Team pages: Groningen · Ajax · Eredivisie
Key moments
- 27' Goal: Julian Brandt — 0–1 · Watch Julian Brandt's goal video (27')
- 37' Goal: Aaron Bouwman — 0–2 · Watch Aaron Bouwman's goal video (37')
- 49' Goal: Brynjólfur Willumsson — 1–2 · Watch Brynjólfur Willumsson's goal video (49')
- 60' Goal: Julian Brandt (assist: Owen Wijndal) — 1–3 · Watch Julian Brandt's goal video (60')
- 69' Goal: Jorthy Mokio — 1–4 · Watch Jorthy Mokio's goal video (69')
- 75' Goal: Jorthy Mokio (assist: Davy Klaassen) — 1–5 · Watch Jorthy Mokio's goal video (75')
- 83' Goal: Thom van Bergen — 2–5 · Watch Thom van Bergen's goal video (83')
Starting line-ups
Groningen (4-2-3-1)
Ajax (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Groningen 31%, the draw 26%, Ajax 43%. It finished Groningen 2–5 Ajax.
Ajax's higher strength rating gives them the edge — Ajax lead mainly because they sit 97 points higher on our strength rating, 1662 to 1565, and their habit of controlling the ball (62% possession to 48 in recent games) adds to that, outweighing Groningen's usual home advantage. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 26% because both sides' recent games average 4.3 goals.
Why Ajax at 43%?
Ajax sit 97 points higher on our strength rating — 1662 to 1565. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,861 such games. Ajax hold 14 more possession points (62 to 48 in recent games) across a 97-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,647 such games where the class table expected 40.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 31–27–42.
Why only 43%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 43% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Groningen at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 4.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,995. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Groningen scored +0.74 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,855 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Steven Berghuis, an important player, and Anton Gaaei, Caio Henrique, and Kasper Dolberg, rotation players. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Groningen vs Ajax final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Eredivisie fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Julian Brandt's goal against Groningen (27').
- Watch Aaron Bouwman's goal against Groningen (37').
- Watch Brynjólfur Willumsson's goal against Ajax (49').
- Watch Julian Brandt's goal against Groningen (60').
- Watch Jorthy Mokio's goal against Groningen (69').
- Watch Jorthy Mokio's goal against Groningen (75').
- Watch Thom van Bergen's goal against Ajax (83').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Groningen 2–5 Ajax. Explore more on the Groningen and Ajax team pages or the Eredivisie page.