Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — Jupiler Pro League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Union St. GilloiseGenkUnion St. GilloiseGenkMatch preview
Union St. Gilloise host Genk in Jupiler Pro League with 14-game unbeaten run
Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Marien on matchday 11 of the Jupiler Pro League, with David Hubert's side second in the table on 26 points from ten games. Jess Thorup's Genk sit sixth on 15, which leaves them four places and 11 points behind the hosts.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Union arrive on a long unbeaten stretch: they have won their last five games and are unbeaten in 14. Across those five wins they have scored 16 goals, including a 5-2 victory over Cercle Brugge, and they last played at Celta Vigo, where they won 2-1.
Genk's recent form is more mixed. They beat Kortrijk 3-0 and Standard Liege 2-1 either side of a 2-0 win at Excelsior Virton, but lost 1-0 at KV Mechelen in their last game, and they went down 3-0 at Club Brugge KV on 20 September. Of their last five away games, Genk have won one, drawn two and lost two.
Across their last 5 meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 4, Genk won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk on 7 March 2026. Genk's latest win in this sample was Genk 2–1 Union St. Gilloise on 15 March 2025.
Union have won all five of their recent games, scoring 16 and failing to score in none, while Genk have won three and lost two of theirs, failing to score twice.
Union have not lost any of their last five home games, winning three and drawing two, while Genk have won once in their last five away.
Union St. Gilloise meet Genk in the Jupiler Pro League (Regular Season - 11). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 17:30 UTC at Stade Joseph Marien. Referee: Bram Van Driessche.
Team pages: Union St. Gilloise · Genk · Jupiler Pro League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Union St. Gilloise 72% · Draw 16% · Genk 12%
Union St. Gilloise's strength gap shapes a one-sided forecast — Union St. Gilloise sit 224 points above Genk on our strength rating, 1833 to 1609, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 72%. The draw starts near 18%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 16% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Union St. Gilloise at 72%?
Union St. Gilloise sit 224 points higher on our strength rating — 1833 to 1609. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 72–17–11.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 72% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 16% and Genk at 12%.
Why is the draw only 16%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 32 home Jupiler Pro League games: 27 wins and 5 draws. The run began on 1 March 2025. It covers all 5 home Jupiler Pro League games this season. Last recorded home league defeat: 16 February 2025 — Union St. Gilloise 0–1 KV Mechelen. Latest home league result: 25 October 2026 — Union St. Gilloise 5–2 Cercle Brugge. Across 16,587 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 55.2%, compared with 54.2% expected from team strength. Union St. Gilloise have won their last 4 home meetings with Genk. Those matches were played between 26 May 2024 and 7 March 2026, across 4 Jupiler Pro League games. Latest home meeting: 7 March 2026 — Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk. Before the winning run: 16 September 2023 — Union St. Gilloise 0–2 Genk. Across 5,408 historical matches following at least three consecutive home wins against the same opponent, hosts won 59.4%, compared with 58.0% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Jupiler Pro League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Union St. Gilloise and Genk team pages or the Jupiler Pro League page.