Birmingham vs Southampton — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsSouthampton FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow2 clips- 45′Southampton, goal:0–1assist
- 45+1′Birmingham, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 55′Birmingham, goal:1–1assist
- 61′Southampton, substitution:off
- 61′Southampton, substitution:off
- 69′Southampton, substitution:off
- 70′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 72′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Birmingham, yellow card:Delay of game
- 81′Southampton, substitution:off
- 86′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 86′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 87′Birmingham, substitution:off
- 90+2′Southampton, yellow card:Foul
- 90+2′Birmingham, yellow card:Argument
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
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Goals
Assists
Videos
Player Ratings
Birmingham
Southampton
Match report
Birmingham vs Southampton — the facts
Birmingham and Southampton drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Birmingham met Southampton in the Championship (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 1 September 2026, 19:00 UTC at St. Andrew's Stadium. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Team pages: Birmingham · Southampton · Championship
Key moments
- 45' Goal: Keven Schlotterbeck (assist: Léo Scienza) — 0–1 · Watch Keven Schlotterbeck's goal video (45')
- 55' Goal: August Priske (assist: Patrick Roberts) — 1–1 · Watch August Priske's goal video (55')
Starting line-ups
Birmingham (4-2-3-1)
Southampton (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Birmingham 29%, the draw 31%, Southampton 40%. It finished Birmingham 1–1 Southampton.
Southampton's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Southampton are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade plus a weak Championship home advantage on top give Southampton the lean. The draw at 31% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Southampton at 40%?
Southampton sit 186 points higher on our strength rating — 1495 to 1681. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,127 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Birmingham's column. Across 10,876 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,391 games vs 44.9% across all 99,641 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 30–27–43.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 31% and Birmingham at 29%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Birmingham win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 24,942. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Southampton average 7 points more possession, but the rating gap here is 186 points. Our control receipt only exists between near-equals — there it moved results; across a class gap we could not measure a separate style edge, so style scores 0 here. Southampton scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,818 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Birmingham vs Southampton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Keven Schlotterbeck's goal against Birmingham (45').
- Watch August Priske's goal against Southampton (55').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Birmingham 1–1 Southampton. Explore more on the Birmingham and Southampton team pages or the Championship page.